FGS Prospero is the Latino stakeholder practice within FGS Global specializing in bilingual strategic communications and messaging.
Over the past week, there has been extensive coverage about the Latino vote’s right-ward shift based on the available exit polls. While Hispanics didn’t turn out for Harris in the same numbers they did for Biden in 2020—in particular Latino men— a large-scale poll of Latinos and other communities of color suggests this shift might not have been as strong as exit polls indicate.
Our jump-off point is the 2024 American Voter Poll (AVP) commissioned by civil rights and advocacy groups including UnidosUS, Voto Latino, the ACLU and Planned Parenthood Action. The AVP was conducted by BSP Research and the African American Research Collaborative, and surveyed 3,750 Latino voters with oversamples in key states such as Pennsylvania, Nevada, California and Arizona, among others with a margin of error of 1.62%. The samples were also weighed according to factors such as urbanicity, language preference and age distribution. It’s important to note that Edison Research does not publish its Latino vote methodology.
Latinos are Multi-Issue Voters
Hispanic voter motivation has been a heavily discussed item. According to the research, Latinos by and far— as was the case with the general population— were highly motivated by economic concerns, with 52% citing inflation and prices as their top voting concern. While most Latinos support abortion rights (79%), only 23% reported the issue as their top motivating factor. Another voting issue subject to much speculation has been immigration. Despite Trump’s false anti-immigrant attacks, over one-third of Hispanics voted for him, suggesting at surface level either a lack of concern that he was referring to them or outright support for mass deportation policies, which puts some 20 million Latinos— regardless of their immigration status— at risk for family separation.
Upon closer inspection, there are important nuances to examine. When asked about specific immigrant groups, such as the undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens, support for deportations falls considerably. Further, 80% of Latino voters support creating a pathway to citizenship for groups such as Dreamers and undocumented immigrants who have been in the country a very long time. Simultaneously, 71% of Latinos support border security policies and making the asylum process stricter. This suggests Hispanic voters favor a “both/and” approach to immigration instead of a wholesale support for deportation policies. This nuance is mirrored in surveys conducted by other organizations such as Equis Research.
Swinging to the Right
Was there a shift from the left to the right in the Hispanic vote? Absolutely, but it’s important to note the shift alone did not alter the outcome of the race. However, at the same time, we need to understand another truth: if the 2024 election outcome had solely depended on Hispanic voters, the Harris-Walz ticket would have won handily. The same can’t be said for White voters, or other subgroups within that cohort. The AVP shows Kamala Harris winning the Hispanic vote with 62% to Donald Trump’s 37%, a higher figure than that reported by exit polls.
According to the researchers, the Hispanic voter shift in most states the AVP surveyed would not have made a difference in on its own. However, vote share did change, which could have made a difference. A Wall Street Journal county level analysis shows the Latino share of the electorate dropped 4.1% from 2020 levels in the counties surveyed. Also, there is indication of increased turnout by White voters.
Zooming into voter demographics, the AVP results reflected Harris’ deficit among Latino men as captured in the exit polls, albeit not nearly as acute. The shift of Hispanic men is particularly notable with Harris winning the cohort 56% to 43%, but still seeing a significant drop from 2020 when Biden won Latino men with 67% of their vote. There are many factors that could have played into this, such as belated outreach by the Harris-Walz campaign and economic worries. Also, Latina women (who voted for Harris at 66%) are also attending college at higher rates than Latino men, which is in line with more educated voters opting for Harris rather than for Trump.
A Misdirected Message is a Losing Message
So, where did Democrats go wrong with Latinos? Messaging was a key area. Several Democratic policy priorities tested in the AVP such as abortion, climate/clean energy, allowing Medicare to negotiate for lower drug prices, or requiring large corporations to pay a 15% tax, all have wide support— between 70% and 94%. Comparing the high policy support to the 62% Harris won, it is clear Democratic policies outran Democratic candidates up and down the ballot, signaling a gap in how these policies are messaged and prioritized.
Also, despite two years’ worth of evidence showing the softening of support among Latino men, the Harris-Walz campaign didn’t actively conduct outreach to this segment until mid-October.
While it’s continually proven that Hispanics are indeed not a monolith, general population polls and off-the-cuff cable pundit analysis reduce their voting behavior and patterns to simplistic soundbites. When working with the Latino communities throughout the country, being aware of these trends and characteristics help us design tailor-made strategies that will help clients reach their goals with this important and growing segment of the U.S. population.
If you have any questions, need further clarification, or want to share your observations, please feel to reach out at FGS-Prospero@fgsglobal.com.