When it comes to M&A, 2025 could justly be called the “Year of the Bank.” In the US, the number of bank M&A deals announced rose to 181, a 45% increase from 2024.
As smaller and mid-sized banks increasingly used M&A to drive scale and operating efficiency, deal count increased substantially in the second half of the year, with 105 deals announced versus 78 deals in the first half. Aggregate deal value in the second half jumped to $42.5B, from $7.9B in the first half. Noteworthy transactions included the September announcement of PNC-First Bank and October’s announcement of Fifth Third-Comerica.
Propelled by the Trump Administration’s lighter regulatory touch, persistent growth and profitability challenges for mid-sized and smaller banks, sharply rising technology costs, mounting pressure from shareholders, and, in some cases, activists entering a stock, speculation also picked up.
Against this backdrop, and especially as momentum continues to build in 2026, the investment community remains keen on identifying possible acquirors and targets. With each deal announcement, analysts publish “who is next” reports the media amplifies. For banks on the target list, or with a profile that could put a target on them, this kind of speculation creates multiple communications challenges. The impact can be felt across stakeholder groups, including investors, employees, customers, business partners, and the media, each with distinct concerns and information requirements.
While it may be tempting for management to let rumours swirl without comment, speculation surrounding bank M&A is more than just background noise; the way a bank communicates during periods of heightened speculation is critical. It can have a tangible impact on a bank’s reputation, employee morale, customer confidence, and shareholder value. A single misstep can amplify uncertainty, fuel speculation, or even trigger regulatory scrutiny. Conversely, a thoughtful, disciplined approach to communications can help maintain stability and protect strategic interests.
Investors
Quarterly earnings calls can become public platforms for speculation. Banks with depressed valuations, growth or earnings pressures or other vulnerabilities can expect variations of the question “would you consider selling?”
For communications and investor relations teams, the challenge is to provide enough information to reassure stakeholders, without making definitive statements that could limit future options or inadvertently signal a change in strategy. This is especially true for banks with vulnerabilities that make them frequent subjects of M&A rumours.
For bank leadership, a definitive “yes” or “no” can raise more issues than it settles. A more effective approach is to acknowledge your fiduciary responsibility to shareholders, then quickly bridge to reinforcing what you are doing to build shareholder value. Highlighting ongoing initiatives and strategic priorities demonstrates accountability and reassures investors that leadership is focused on value creation.
Media
If your bank has been identified as a potential target, every time another deal is announced, reporters will call asking for comment. There is no upside to commenting on another bank’s deal. These reporters are hoping to spot changes in your tone and body language that might suggest that your posture toward merging with another bank has changed. By maintaining discipline and consistency in media interactions, banks can avoid fueling speculation and protect their reputations. In this context, silence is often the most strategic response.
Employees
Speculation that your bank is a takeout target can be unsettling. Analyst reports can be particularly concerning to bank employees because they often refer to “deal synergies and cost savings” that employees translate to layoffs. This kind of analysis immediately makes some of your employees ripe for poaching by competitors, while others worry about job security.
When rumors become a distraction, a brief note from your CEO acknowledging the public speculation about your bank and reminding employees to stay focused can help contain the impact on productivity. In all employee communications regarding M&A, as with investors, neither a definitive “yes” nor a definitive “no” is advisable unless you have truly eliminated all other possible outcomes. Managers should be armed with brief talking points that reiterate the messages in the CEO note and instructed not to elaborate or embellish.
Customers and business partners
Customers and business partners may seek clarity about the bank’s future amid M&A speculation. Relationship managers should be provided with talking points that reassure both groups of their importance to your bank and its long term success – and again, avoid a definitive “yes” or “no” response.
In an environment of increasing bank M&A activity, where speculation about potential buyers and sellers is pervasive and growing, your communications and IR teams can face significant challenges in defending your bank’s investment thesis, strategy, performance, and independence. By adopting a disciplined, stakeholder-focused approach, you can navigate this complex environment with confidence, ensuring that your narrative remains consistent, credible, and aligned with long-term value creation.
Thoughtful preparation and execution of a communications strategy will help your bank weather the challenges of speculation and activism, positioning the bank for continued success as you navigate this environment. Ultimately, the key to success lies in preparation, coordination, and consistency in communications.