Disinformation and false narratives continue to gain traction on mainstream and niche social media platforms, driving unfounded concerns about voter fraud and undermining confidence in electoral systems.
Working with our strategic partner Alethea, FGS Global is tracking election disinformation on 19 mainstream and niche social media platforms. Some of the most common recurring narratives include:
Immigration and Voter Fraud. A high volume of content on these platforms claims that noncitizens are registering to vote or submitting mail-in ballots using the addresses of businesses so Democrats can “steal” the 2024 election. Anti-immigrant rhetoric has increased following former President Trump’s claims about immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, during the September 10 debate.
Mail-in and Absentee Voting. A high volume of content also claims that mail-in or absentee voting has been and will continue to be misused by Democrats, NGOs and the U.S. Postal Service to steal the election — this narrative has circulated among conspiratorial communities since the 2020 elections.
Voting Machines. A high volume of content claims that voting machines — such as those manufactured by Dominion Voting Systems or Election Systems & Software — are used to manipulate the election result. A sub-narrative claims that voting machine companies work with foreign governments to provide them data on U.S. voters.
Another false narrative that may emerge on election night comes from the "red mirage" and "blue shift" phenomenon, which happens on election night when early vote counts may misleadingly favor Republican candidates (“red mirage”) due to the tendency of in-person votes, which are counted first, to lean Republican. As mail-in and absentee ballots, which often skew Democratic, are counted later, the initial Republican lead may diminish or even reverse, creating a "blue shift."
This can create a false narrative of an early Republican victory, followed by a Democratic surge, potentially leading to confusion and mistrust in the electoral process.
In 2020, early returns created the impression that Republicans were winning by significant margins. Later, as the mail-in ballots were processed and counted, Democrats closed the gap, and in many races, took the lead.
This year, fewer people are expected to use mail-in ballots. However, we may see this phenomenon repeat itself.