Weekly insight and analysis: 21st June 2024
The poll picture
Nearly 100 polls have been published since the General Election was called on 22 May. On average they show Labour 20% ahead, as they have for nearly two years now. All the polls agree that Labour are on course for a landslide, but they don’t agree on how big it will be. Labour support ranges in the polls from 35% to 46%, the Conservatives from 18% to 25%. The Labour lead over the Conservatives ranges from 25% to 14% - and three polls over the last week put the Conservatives third in national vote share, behind Reform UK.
One point on which all the polls agree is that support is drifting away from the two main parties. At the last General Election 75% voted either Conservative or Labour and a few months ago the polls suggested that the same thing would happen this time. The combined Labour and Conservative share has been declining throughout the campaign though. Looking at the most recent poll from every pollster, none have more than 65% voting Labour or Conservative, and the average over the last week is just 61%, which would be comfortably the lowest percentage ever.
The main beneficiaries of this trend are Reform UK, now at around 18% in most polls, the Liberal Democrats on about 10% and the Green Party around 6%
