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Election ’24 – weekly insight and analysis

Weekly insight and analysis: 28th June 2024

Polls and megapolls

This week has seen a flurry of the MRP mega-polls projecting how many MPs each party will have, and projections of their percentage vote share in each constituency – a specificity which, along with their huge sample size, causes these types of poll to be accorded particular significance.

All of the MRP polls point to a Labour majority of over 200. They project the number of Labour MPs to be between 428 and 458 – comfortably the most ever won by any single party in a UK election. The range of difference on how many Conservative MPs we’ll have – which these models put between 60 and 131 – may prove to be more significant.

Close comparison of all the MRP models reveals that they only agree on which party will win in 353 seats; they disagree on the winner in 46% of all constituencies. Many of the polling companies producing these projections have also been at pains to emphasis that small changes in party support could make very significant differences at constituency level.

The traditional voting polls, meanwhile, continue to differ. Five polls this week showed a Labour lead of 16% on average. Six other polls put Labour’s lead at 23%.

The exact shape and the scale of the election may yet hold some surprises as the results are declared.

Download the full analysis here.