Tuesday’s US Presidential election delivered swifter and stronger results than many predicted. In the aftermath, and in the face of a decided Donald Trump presidency with at least Republican control of the Senate, FGS Global gathered a panel of political experts – including veterans of Presidential campaigns, former senior advisors from the White House and Congress, and previous political journalists - to understand how we got here and where, as a nation, we can expect to head next.
Where we stand: The White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives
In possibly the most decisive win since the 2008 election, Donald Trump triumphed in both the popular vote and the Electoral College, becoming the first Republican to do so in 20 years. His success, our experts note, can be attributed to a few key factors:
A strong coalition – Trump gathered support in several critical demographics, including working-class, non-college educated Americans, young men and Latinos. Together with the Harris campaign’s unexpected loss of support from younger voters, women and Independents, this shift allowed Trump to earn his sweeping victory.
A savvy campaign – Unlike in the 2016 and 2020 elections, Trump’s campaign was disciplined and focused, particularly on convincing voters that Harris was too liberal and too closely tied to Biden, and therefore to blame for struggles at the Border and in the economy. Leveraging powerful paid ads along with alternative media sources like podcasts also played a role and may have been particularly powerful in winning over voters who waited until the final weeks or even days to decide before, according to the exit polls, ultimately landing on Trump.
An American desire for change – Exit polls also indicated that the top 2 issues that drove voters this year did not include abortion access as many expected but were instead ability to lead and ability to bring needed change. 72% of voters indicated an unhappiness with the country’s current direction, likely pushing them to elect Trump.
Meanwhile, the Senate also secured a Republican majority, though not one that is filibuster-proof. Only the House of Representatives remains in the balance, and what happens there will significantly shape the next four years.
Alternative Futures: Two Outcomes Remain
Our Alternative Futures framework initially outlined four potential scenarios that could result from this year’s election. Now, only two remain: MAGA Momentum or Power Struggle.
Should Democrats claim the House, it denies Trump a glidepath to enact his policies through Congress and will force him to rely more on executive orders to carry out his agenda. On the contrary, if Republicans maintain control, Trump will have willing partners in control of both chambers of Congress interested in advancing his agenda quickly and largely unchecked.
So, what is on that agenda? Our experts anticipate that Trump will focus on:
Tariffs – Trump has promised to increase tariffs on Chinese imports by up to 60%, with an overall 10% increase to all other imports. Notably, such tariffs could have a direct inflationary impact both for exporting countries and on consumer prices.
Taxes – Many of the tax cuts Trump introduced during his first term are set to expire within the next 2 years, and it is likely he’ll focus on renewing them. He has also promised to reduce the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%.
Regulation – Trump will certainly work to peel back many of the regulations introduced under Biden, particularly by the EPA and the Department of Energy. On antitrust regulations, however, the outcome is less clear. Trump will likely take a case-by-case, transactional approach to antitrust issues. Still, Vice President-elect JD Vance and some other Republicans have been supportive of FTC Chairwoman Khan and may take a more aggressive approach to business practices.
Foreign Policy – Experts anticipate that Trump will walk the talk, so to speak, when it comes to foreign policy. He has been vocal about his strong relationships to certain world leaders as well as his desire to end the war in Ukraine. Whether the US will follow through on his threat to exit NATO though remains to be seen, with some expecting him to walk back this plan given the considerable support for NATO amongst Members of Congress and the fact that a recently enacted US law prevents a president from withdrawing from NATO without Senate approval.
Supreme Court – With conservative Justices Alito and Thomas both in their 70’s, our experts anticipate that some conservatives may push for their retirement and replacement with younger, likeminded justices.
What’s Next
Though his exact plans may not be confirmed, one thing we can count on is swift action. Trump has effectively been given a mandate by the American people, and with this energy behind him, he is emboldened. Couple this with the fact that 2024 will be his final term, and the Trump administration will hit the ground running come January 20th.
What, then, do businesses need to know? That the cliché rings true: those who fail to plan, plan to fail. Business should keep a watchful eye on the leaders Trump continues to align himself with, the coming tax reform debate, and how federal agencies approach regulatory measures post-Loper. More importantly, they should not try to predict the future, but instead prepare for each of the possible outcomes that might impact their business and how to protect their interests, values and future.
To learn more about how FGS Global helps clients navigate change and tackle their most critical challenges even in an uncertain landscape, contact our Alternative Futures team.