Even after Wales voted marginally for a form of self-government in 1997, it is hard to escape the perception that it remained in the eyes of many nothing but a mere “geographic expression”, as told by the Bishop of St David's in 1886. While an assembly-cum-parliament has gathered in Cardiff Bay for over two decades the power and influence of Welsh devolution has been under appreciated. Under appreciated not just by the public, but also by politicians and the media – in Wales and across the UK – who focus disproportionately on developments in Northern Ireland’s peace process, the growth of political nationalism in Scotland and macro-political events in the House of Commons.
It has taken a global pandemic to bring into sharp focus the different system of government in Wales, where the Welsh Government has made headlines for charting a different course on coronavirus policy to Downing Street. For the first time, many Welsh people recognise Cardiff Bay rather than Westminster as the centre of political-decision making. This is largely because the once relatively unknown first minister of Wales, Mark Drakeford, now enjoys a public profile similar to that of Arlene Foster and Nicola Sturgeon: Welsh political leaders finally have a status on the UK stage that their Celtic cousins have enjoyed for far longer.
As the politics of Wales enters the national spotlight for the first time this century, Finsbury Glover Hering hosted its second annual Wales Week in London event this month, Election 2021: What next for Wales?, to debate the issues facing the country ahead of the sixth Senedd elections in May. With the help of Carwyn Jones, the former Labour first minister of Wales; Lord Bourne, the Welsh Conservative leader in Cardiff for over a decade; and the Plaid Cymru grandee Lord Wigley, we have summarised the key issues that will dominate debates in the weeks leading up to polling day.
TWENTY YEARS OF LABOUR
Labour has been in the driving seat of Welsh politics since 1999, as Nick Bourne duly noted in our discussion. The party has been an unstoppable political force throughout the devolved era – solidifying its position as the natural party of government since the National Assembly for Wales was formed. Yet as much as Welsh Labour emphasise that it has established a different and successful political brand from its London parent, or the “clear red water” that the late Rhodri Morgan described, with two decades of Labour rule comes increased scrutiny of a record in government that opposition parties argue is underwhelming.
Carwyn Jones was the Labour first minister for nine years, but even he acknowledged that the party had to demonstrate it had not “run out of steam” in 2021. With relatively modest records on economic development, education standards and health provisions, the Welsh Conservatives and Plaid Cymru will be arguing that change is needed in Cardiff Bay to properly test the framework of the Welsh Government.
So as much as this is an election for all political parties to set out their stall, it will also be yet another poll on the record of Welsh Labour in office. Thus far, they have continued to enjoy the confidence of the electorate over five elections, and an assertive period of leadership by Mark Drakeford during the coronavirus crisis will likely be amplified by strategists to draw attention away from the legacies of other Labour administrations.
DEALMAKING
In turn, this is likely to make the Welsh Labour electoral strategy an inherently defensive one. If the polls are to be believed, Mark Drakeford is set to lead the largest party in the Senedd, but perhaps short of an elusive majority it only now enjoys due to a coalition it has with the sole Welsh Liberal Democrat member of the Senedd, Kirsty Williams, and the former Plaid Cymru leader Lord Elis-Thomas.
This encapsulates the fundamental trend in Welsh politics: only cross-party deals can offer relatively stable and successful governments. Therefore this election is just as much about the similarities as it is about the differences between the parties. All politicians will need to find common ground for compromise.
The Welsh Conservatives and Plaid Cymru have, however, ruled out sharing government with one another – largely because they are on polar opposite sides when it comes to the constitutional question. What this means is that neither are likely to enter government in May, unless there is a dramatic shift from both sides. If nothing changes, the Welsh Labour ‘Red Wall’ looks set to be standing for another five years.
THE CYMRIC TIGER
Devolution was set to usher in a new age of job creation and economic development for Wales, but there are several parts of the country that rank the lowest on the GDP league table compared to other parts of the UK. Some parts of Wales are also the most deprived regions in Europe, with many post-industrial areas continuing to languish in poverty.
Carwyn Jones, the consummate Welsh Labour politician, defended his party’s record on the economy to our audience: neither Dafydd Wigley nor Nick Bourne were convinced. A unique similarity between our Plaid Cymru and Welsh Conservative representatives is that they look back fondly at the legacy of bodies such as the Welsh Development Agency, which attracted inward investment to Wales before it was scrapped by Welsh Labour.
The bigger question of how Wales can Build Back Better is a crucial one. A bold vision to develop the Welsh economy is so far absent from the major political parties in Wales. Once they are able to articulate a national recovery story, they may have a chance to sweep up undecided voters who will be thinking of the key issues of their lives: taxes, jobs, and investment in local communities.
INDEPENDENCE
Perhaps the most remarkable political impact of the pandemic has been the growth of Welsh nationalism, a phenomenon which our panellists acknowledged was an active force in public life. While there is disagreement over whether this will be an election focused on Wales’s future in the UK – Dafydd Wigley convincingly argued we cannot separate the constitutional question from the everyday “bread and butter” issues of politics – there is no doubt that politicians of all persuasions will have the idea of an independent Wales on their minds.
After all, it’s hard not to: for the first time the non-partisan campaign movement, YesCymru, will be writing to all candidates ahead of May to ask their views on the constitutional question. And Plaid Cymru has already committed to holding a referendum in its first term, if elected. Yet again it is an issue that will particularly influence Welsh Labour: while Mark Drakeford has advocated for a radical federal settlement for Wales, most of his members now want an independent Wales rather than one which is tied to the UK.
Therefore unlike previous Senedd elections, this year’s poll will be notable in focusing on Wales’s constitutional future. What makes this most interesting is that each of the main parties have radically different visions of what that looks like.
OTHER THINGS TO LOOK OUT FOR… There are plenty of other issues away from the ‘big picture’ that will feature in the debates in the weeks ahead. These include internal party squabbles on policy and personality, developments in political groups on the margins of politics, and seismic shifts outside of Wales altogether; but they are all matters which may influence the future direction of the nation as a whole.
For example, the Welsh Conservatives have now taken the remarkable step of selecting anti-devolution members as candidates for May, a decision which Nick Bourne certainly would have opposed if he was still leader. The days of a pragmatic, liberal and progressive Welsh Conservativism seem to be behind us; this, as many political scientists and commentators have noted, will reshape the centre-right of Wales for years to come.
Elsewhere, away from the main parties there are plenty of smaller political groups to keep your eye on. Abolish the Welsh Assembly, which has a mission to dismantle the Welsh parliament, is currently set to win a couple of seats in May on the back of devo-sceptic sentiment. There are also others vying for attention: Gwlad, the centre-right party that supports Welsh independence; the Welsh branch of the Green Party; as well as Propel, the one-man band led by Neil McEvoy, who in 2016 came close to defeating Mark Drakeford in his Cardiff West constituency.
There is also heightened interest in developments further north. After all the future of Wales may not be one which is driven by its own people, but by the Scots. Should Nicola Sturgeon return victorious in Holyrood, the first minister will demand and may indeed be granted a referendum on the constitutional question. If that happens, then the whole dynamic in Wales completely changes too.
*To access a recording of Election 2021: What next for Wales, please get in touch with theo.davies-lewis@fgh.com *Theo Davies-Lewis is a native Welsh speaker from West Wales and an Associate at Finsbury Glover Hering, where he works across listed and international clients on their strategic and financial communications. He writes and broadcasts on Welsh politics, for outlets including BBC Cymru, The Times, and The Spectator. Most recently he was appointed to the Council of the Cymmrodorion, an organisation which recognises the contribution of Wales in contemporary society, and the editorial board of the Institute of Welsh Affairs. He is the host of the Welsh affairs podcast, What next for Wales?.*