Public confidence in institutions is collapsing, and the consequences are already reshaping the political and economic landscape.
FGS Global Radar 2026 highlights a widening gap between leaders and the public across advanced democracies. More than a temporary fluctuation in trust, this is a systemic crisis of confidence that is fueling volatility, empowering disruptors, and forcing leaders to rethink how legitimacy is earned.
A pessimism problem leaders can’t ignore
Across every one of the 27 countries polled, pessimism is the dominant public mood. Large majorities believe that life will be harder for the next generation, democracy is weakening, political systems serve elites rather than ordinary people and public institutions are not working as effectively as they should.
This depth and consistency of pessimism is striking. While dissatisfaction with politics or the economy is not new, the scale of shared unease across geographies, political systems and cultures points to a broader structural challenge for democratic governance and institutional authority.
Crucially, people do not feel this crisis emerged overnight. Trust in leaders and institutions has been eroding for years. What has changed is the intensity. A growing number of voters – 68% of those polled – believe the political system in their country is failing the people and requires fundamental reform, questioning whether current systems are equipped to deliver meaningful change.
Impatience is driving support for disruption
One of the most consequential findings is how pessimism translates into political behavior.
People are increasingly impatient for results and 40% think we need strong leaders who are willing to break the rules to get things done. Across our interviews, experts noted that many voters admire “disruptors” not necessarily because they agree with them, but because they believe disruption is the only way to force change.
This dynamic helps explain the durability of populism across democracies, as it shifts from being a protest vote or a temporary backlash, to becoming a structural condition. 74% of those polled say the political system serves the interests of a rich and powerful elite rather than ordinary working people, reinforcing the belief that conventional institutions are either unwilling or unable to deliver meaningful results
For leaders, this means political volatility is not a phase, it is the new normal and the environment in which they must operate.
The widening gap between elites and the public
The crisis of confidence is reinforced by a deep divide between expert opinion and public expectations.
On issues ranging from taxation and public spending to AI and economic reform, we find that many policies viewed by experts as necessary or inevitable are rejected by voters. 66% of those polled believe that a competent government could meet public expectations without raising taxes. Trade-offs that leaders see as unavoidable are often deemed unacceptable by the public - creating space for simple, clear-cut alternatives.
Most people agree with the proposition that “there are clear and easy solutions to the big challenges facing the country, if only we had better political leaders.” In a climate of distrust, complexity can be perceived as deflection, and caution as reluctance to act.
What this means for leadership strategy
In a world defined by collapsing confidence, leadership assumptions need to evolve.
Legitimacy can no longer be assumed. It must be continually earned, clearly explained and visibly reinforced through action. Affordability and fairness are no longer peripheral concerns, they are central to regulatory decisions, political strategy and consumer behavior.
Above all, leaders must recognize that pessimism changes how people listen. Messages that rely on institutional authority, technical expertise or long-term promises will struggle unless they directly address lived experience and near-term impact.
FGS Global Radar 2026
The crisis of confidence is just one of the forces reshaping 2026. Radar draws on 175 in-depth interviews with global leaders and polling of 20,000 people across major democracies to map where trust is breaking down - and what that means for politics, business and society. Download the full report to explore the data, expert perspectives and strategic implications shaping the year ahead.
