A kettle of China hawks

Insight: Kettle is one of the collective nouns for hawks and comes from them spiralling in the wind, much like objects boiling in a pot. Policy hawks on China certainly appear to be spiralling toward key positions in Washington after President-elect Donald Trump named Mike Waltz, a Florida congressman, as his national security adviser, picked Elise Stefanik as ambassador to the UN and is expected to choose Senator Marco Rubio as secretary of state. All three are known to consider China an “existential threat” to US interests.  

Impact: It is no surprise that Trump is surrounding himself with people hostile to Beijing given his campaign rhetoric and the fact that the antagonistic stance from his first term has become Beltway consensus. But experts say what really matters is whether these advisers will actually dictate China policy, in which case the world faces an era of ‘strategic competition’, a ruinous trade war and potentially military confrontation. Alternatively, Trump the pragmatic dealmaker could override them (possibly advised by Elon Musk) and reach an accommodation with Beijing that defuses tensions.

$1.4 trillion

China has unveiled a $1.4 trillion (10 trillion yuan) economic stimulus package aimed at alleviating the financial strains on local governments and supporting its struggling housing market. The plan allows local governments to restructure their debts while raising the debt ceiling to approximately $6.8 trillion (53 trillion yuan). While analysts were underwhelmed, most are hoping for more direct measures to come to boost consumer spending.

Insight: Chinese e-commerce giants Alibaba and JD.com wrapped up the annual Singles’ Day global shopping festival on November 11. This year, the big trend was “emotional consumption,” with categories such as toys and plushies, home goods and pet products emerging as favorites: luxury soft toy brand Jellycat saw a staggering 230% year-on-year sales increase on its Tmall flagship store in the first two hours. Industry experts call this a “lipstick effect”: amid economic uncertainty, consumers are choosing smaller, more affordable items that bring them joy and emotional fulfillment. 

Impact: Singles' Day has evolved into a cultural phenomenon that dominates China’s e-commerce landscape and also serves as a barometer for consumer confidence. For global brands, it is a window into the shifting preferences of Chinese consumers. However, with year-round discounts becoming the norm, shoppers are less motivated to go all out during Singles’ Day. Add in the intensifying competition among Chinese e-commerce platforms in both domestic and global markets, and savvy marketing strategies and an accurate understanding of consumer behavior are now essential for success.

Insight: Akira Amari, perhaps Japan’s biggest semiconductor advocate, lost his seat in Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s snap election. The future of Japan’s push to become Asia’s semiconductor hub seemed in flux, until PM Ishiba announced $65 billion in support for chips and AI.  

Impact: Japan isn’t the only country on a semiconductor and data center spending spree. As countries put forward huge amounts to come out on top of the AI race, the question remains: Will AI be used for good, allowing people to live better lives in what Forbes calls “the future of ‘less work’”? Or will history show the AI race make villains out of the countries putting the most funding behind it? Japan and the world at large will need to grapple with how to balance AI’s benefits with its more nefarious use cases as cash floods the market in pursuit of AI dominance. 

A comprehensive sentiment analysis shows reveals Asia’s pragmatic approach to geopolitics

Insight: FGS Singapore analyzed over 1,000 articles from Southeast Asian media about the US election over the past five days. What emerged was a resolutely practical focus on issues like immigration and remittances (the Philippines), tariffs (Thailand), FDI (Malaysia) and cryptocurrency among other things (Indonesia). 

Impact: The key learning from this exercise is that Asian media have not just been reporting on the election but interpreting it for their readers – filtering it through a complex set of regional interests, economic dependencies and cultural perspectives. Helping businesses in Southeast Asia work out how they will be affected is something that strategic communications professionals like FGS are well equipped to do. 

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