The meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi in Beijing this week will be the most commercially consequential bilateral meeting in years. FGS Global's experts on U.S.–China relations assess what to watch:
The Busan trade truce is the baseline. Last October's agreement froze further U.S. tariff hikes in exchange for Chinese export licenses on critical minerals. Both sides are expected to reaffirm those commitments this week and possibly announce commercial deals and a formal trade dialogue. The open question is whether they can go beyond Busan, or whether distrust keeps the relationship frozen at a fragile status quo.
Market access cuts both ways. Several American CEOs are accompanying Trump to Beijing – a signal that commercial fairness is on the agenda. But Beijing's new regulations penalizing foreign companies that stop using Chinese suppliers are a direct counter to U.S. de-risking pressure – presenting challenges that run deeper than any single summit can address.
Congressional resistance will cap any deal. Dozens of Republican and Democratic lawmakers have moved to block Chinese automakers from the U.S. market and restrict semiconductor exports, complicating the path for Trump's negotiators regardless of what is agreed in Beijing.
China will offer wins in low-sensitivity sectors. Beijing has signaled willingness to provide tangible trade concessions in exchange for tariff relief and eased technology containment measures. U.S. aviation and agricultural companies are the most likely near-term beneficiaries.
Tariff architecture is more fragile than it looks. Recent court rulings striking down key tariff mechanisms have forced the administration to reimpose tariffs through other channels, ensuring tariffs remain a point of friction regardless of what leaders announce.
Structural tensions will persist. China controls an estimated 85–90% of global rare earth refining capacity – a gap that experts say could take a decade to close. Export controls on semiconductors have broad bipartisan support in Congress, and any executive commitment to ease them faces immediate legislative resistance.
The Iran war has reshuffled leverage. With leverage running in both directions, businesses should expect a hardened U.S. position on sanctions compliance alongside narrowing space for broader commercial agreements on critical minerals, tariffs and market access.
The full analysis is on our website.
