Jury’s Still Out

Donald Trump’s conviction in New York may have an impact on voters’ perceptions in the 2024 election, but it’s too early to be certain. 

As our research team laid out in their election analysis last week, 24% of Republicans when polled before the verdict had said they “might reconsider” their vote in 2024 if Trump was convicted. The Trump campaign, however, will likely use the news to further drive fundraising in the coming weeks.

While the media is heavily covering the trial, Americans are focused on the issues. Inflation and the economy are key in the 2024 election: more than half of voters (55%) are more worried about Biden handling the economy than worried about Trump setting policy on abortion (45%). Our panel of battleground voters agree the economy is the issue they are most concerned about – and they are personally feeling the impact of the current economic landscape. 

The race has remained close for months, both nationally and in the six swing states that will likely decide the outcome. In the words of our colleague Joel Johnson: “The stakes couldn’t be higher in this election, and it’s looking like the margin of victory couldn’t be smaller.”

When it comes to TikTok, former President Donald Trump appears to be embracing the old adage: If you can’t beat them, join them. 

Despite his previous attempts to ban the app during his presidency, Trump’s verified account launched over the weekend with a video from the recent UFC fight in New Jersey. Trump quickly gained more than 3.6 million followers, significantly outpacing President Joe Biden, who has 340,000 followers on the platform.

Trump has recently shifted his stance on the potential TikTok ban, now opposing Biden's legislation that mandates ByteDance sell the app. He contends that while ByteDance may pose a national security risk, imposing a ban would frustrate young American users and inadvertently advantage Meta, the parent company of Facebook, which had previously suspended his account following the events at the U.S. Capitol in 2021.

Trump's entrance on TikTok came just three days after his felony convictions. Watch to see how his move could notably affect youth voter interaction, galvanize his supporters and lead other political figures to reconsider their digital campaign strategies.

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As the election heats up, voters in battleground states are seeing a surge of political advertising related to the 2024 election. 

The FGS Global research team revealed in their election analysis last week that despite reporting frequently seeing political ads, swing state voters have been largely unimpressed. Here’s what they found: 

• While television commercials are still the most common, there’s also a reported increase in advertisements on social media.

• Advertising isn’t especially memorable to these voters – with the exception of abortion rights ads.

• Voters complain the ads primarily attack their opponent rather than focusing on their own platforms.

• Some recall seeing ads discussing abortion rights being rolled back in their states. These typically incorporate medical professionals speaking on the issue, which they say adds legitimacy.

To date, 70% of political ad spend has been in seven key states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Democrats are outspending Republicans by more than double — $49.2 million to $22.1 million. Political ad spending in the US is expected to reach $12 billion in 2024 – a record high at nearly triple the $4.25 billion spend of 2016.