Prepper’s Playbook

The 2024 U.S. election is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in history. It’s also one of the most unpredictable. 

Enter FGS’ Alternative Futures Election Analysis Framework, whose goal is to help clients think through the impact of possible electoral outcomes and possible political, legislative and business environments that may result from the election. We spoke with our Head of Data Products & Insights Chad Ensley to learn more about the tool.

• Why did you feel it was important to create this product?

  • The U.S. presidential election will be incredibly impactful for every one of our clients, but it’s fraught with enormous uncertainty and volatility, making decision-making extremely difficult. We needed a framework to help us distill all this complexity and noise into a practical way to think about and navigate the turbulence ahead. 

• How did your career in the intelligence community inform this product?

  • While serving in the U.S. intelligence community for over 20 years, I was often asked by senior policymakers to “predict the future.” Unfortunately, there’s no crystal ball or magic algorithm hidden in a government vault somewhere, so we had to develop and leverage what we call “structured analytic techniques” to sharpen our thinking and analytic judgements. Techniques like the Alternative Futures methodology give us a framework to rigorously examine a larger landscape of possibilities.

• Q: How is this product different from other election analyses out there?

  • The Alternative Futures Election Intelligence offering focuses on preparation, not prediction. Most of the commentary and punditry around the U.S. election is focused on poll numbers and the horse race. The world doesn’t unfold in a linear, predictable way, but you can’t simply wait to see how things turn out before you make a plan. The Alternative Futures model helps us envision a broader landscape of possible outcomes across issues and sectors to help our clients make critical decisions. Whatever version of the future we find ourselves in, our goal is to make sure clients are equipped with a roadmap and strategy for the risks and opportunities ahead.

Click here to view the full U.S. Election Intelligence report. To learn more, reach out to FGS Global’s Alternative Futures team at AlternativeFutures@fgsglobal.com.

At this point in the election cycle, the question on everyone’s mind is: what future are we trending toward? FGS Global’s Alternative Futures team has examined the likelihood of four possible election outcomes. Here’s what they say:

• Likely: “Maga Momentum,” or Trump presidency with single party control. Former President Trump is leading in five of six swing states, the Senate is leaning GOP and Republicans are competitive in contested House seats. In this scenario, checks and balances will remain but be tested as Trump determines how far he can push his agenda.

• Likely: “Power Struggle,” or Trump presidency with a divided government. Trump is leading in key states and the Senate map structurally favors the GOP, but control of the House is currently a toss-up. In this scenario, Trump would likely look for opportunities to strengthen the power of the Executive Branch. Democrats would try to stop the MAGA agenda and preserve any legislative victories from the Biden years.

• Less Likely: “Stalemate,” or Biden presidency with a divided government. Biden is within striking distance of Trump and House races are narrowly leaning towards Democrats taking control. However, the GOP retains a strong advantage for Senate control. Biden would likely quickly become a lame duck and soon attention would turn to 2028. Republicans would use the powers at their disposal to block Biden’s agenda while looking for opportunities to advance conservative priorities.

• Least Likely: “Progressive Push,” or Biden presidency with single party control. Biden trails Trump in swing state polls and the Senate map structurally favors the GOP, but volatility in the political environment could swing the vote toward Biden and the Democrats. Biden would likely look for opportunities to cement his legacy, but competing priorities within the Democratic party could hamper efforts to advance the progressive agenda.

Next week, we’ll look at what each of these outcomes could mean for specific sectors.

To learn more, reach out to FGS Global’s Alternative Futures team at AlternativeFutures@fgsglobal.com. Each Alternative Futures report is a snapshot of a moment in time; future reports are forthcoming.

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The many ongoing legal cases against Trump have further complicated the 2024 election cycle. With multiple trials in varying stages of development, It can be difficult to keep track of where they stand and how they could impact possible outcomes. Our Alternative Futures team has clearly outlined these cases and where they stand as of June 2024:

The Hush Money Case

• Jurisdiction: NYS Court System

• What: Criminal trial related to payments to cover up a scandal during the 2016 presidential campaign. 

• When: The trial is complete, and former President Trump has been found guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records. 

• The latest: Sentencing is scheduled for July 11, four days before the start of the Republican Convention on July 15.

Classified Documents Case

• Jurisdiction: Federal Court, Southern District of Florida

• What: Criminal trial related to Trump’s handling of sensitive government documents he took with him when he left office. 

• When: Judge Aileen Cannon indefinitely delayed the start of the trial due to numerous unresolved pre-trial issues. 

• The latest: Trial is very unlikely to occur before the election.

Federal Election Interference Case

• Jurisdiction: Federal Court, DC

• What: Criminal trial related to Trump’s efforts to retain power after the 2020 election and the January 6 attack on the Capitol. 

• When: The trial date is delayed while the Supreme Court considers immunity issues.

• The latest: The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on immunity issues on April 25 and a ruling is expected sometime in June. Trial may be pushed beyond Election Day.

Civil Fraud Case

• Jurisdiction: NYS Court System 

• What: Civil trial related to fraudulent practices at the Trump Organization. In February, Judge Arthur Engoron found the Trump Organization guilty of fraud and entered a $454 million judgment against the company.

• When: Court date for an appeal TBD.

• The latest: Trump posted a $175 million bond to pursue an appeal of the judgment.

The Georgia Election Interference Case

• Jurisdiction: Georgia State Court System

• What: Criminal trial related to 2020 election interference in the state of Georgia. 

• When: Trial date delayed.

• The latest: The Georgia Court of Appeals has stayed the case against former President Trump pending the outcome of appeals to remove District Attorney Fani Willis on the case. The appeals are not expected to be resolved before the election.

Fraudulent Electors Cases

• Jurisdiction: Various State Courts

• What: Criminal prosecutions of so-called fake electors in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin. Trump himself has not been indicted in any of the cases thus far.

• When: Trial dates vary by state.

• The latest: Prosecutions are proceeding in Arizona, Michigan and Nevada. Rudy Guiliani was recently indicted in Arizona.