TikTok's U.S. Ban: A Global Perspective

On April 24th, U.S. President Biden signed a bill into law that forces TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, to sell its shares to an American company within 270 days or face a U.S. ban. In response, TikTok has filed a lawsuit against the U.S. government, arguing that the law is unconstitutional and discriminates by specifically targeting the platform. 

In the lawsuit, TikTok claims the bill "is simply not possible: not commercially, not technologically, not legally”. 

While TikTok has had some success with court challenges in the past, the federal battle in the U.S. will no doubt be tough, as judges often defer to Congress on national security, which is the law’s basis. The case would first go to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, and the judicial review would pause the divestiture timeline. Should the case reach the U.S. Supreme Court, the ban could be delayed by another year, potentially pushing any action to 2026. 

TikTok has already been prohibited in India, Afghanistan, Jordan, Uzbekistan, Senegal, Somalia, Kyrgyzstan, China, and Nepal. The app is also currently prohibited on all official government devices in Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Norway, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom. Additionally, top EU policymaking institutions—the European Parliament, the European Commission, and the European Council—have prohibited the use of TikTok on staff devices.  

As of January 2024, the United States boasted the most extensive TikTok user base, with nearly 170 million users. Comparatively, the UK has nearly 23 million users, and the EU has nearly 142 million users. While a potential U.S. ban might set a critical example for other areas, U.S. allies often have varying tech regulation and privacy laws, as well as substantial hurdles to enacting a similar prohibition. For example, an EU-wide TikTok ban that mirrors the U.S. is unlikely at the moment. The European Commission's focus has been on addressing privacy and disinformation issues through the Digital Services Act rather than imposing a ban based on security concerns.

Globally, increasing bans could foster a more fragmented digital landscape, with different regions having access to distinct sets of apps and services, contingent upon national security assessments. 

Meta could finally achieve what it has sought for years: to outmaneuver its most formidable rival. The impact of a ban could result in TikTok's massive user base migrating to platforms like Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts, where they are likely to find similar (if not identical) content. Meta and Google will likely emerge as the main beneficiaries, potentially capturing a significant portion of TikTok's U.S. ad revenue. 

The U.S. legislative focus on TikTok contrasts with broader challenges facing the tech industry, such as antitrust lawsuits against major companies like Meta and Google. Critics argue that implementing a TikTok ban without comprehensive tech regulation could potentially solidify the monopolies of these large tech firms, without effectively addressing broader privacy and data protection concerns. 

If ByteDance refuses to sell, cloud service providers and app stores will be prohibited from offering the app for distribution. Current users may retain the app on their devices, but access to content would be entirely restricted. Without updates, the app would likely become outdated and pose a security hazard over time. While some tech-savvy users may find “workarounds,” such as using a VPN or foreign SIM cards to bypass restrictions, uncertainties remain, and most users are likely to transition to alternative platforms to fulfill their social media needs.

TikTok continues to be a pivotal platform for youth and global consumer engagement today.  

Given the uncertain trajectory of the platform, brands should anticipate potential changes and prepare a contingency plan that braces for a ban in the U.S. while still reaching desired audiences. Brands should maintain a varied mix of channels – a lesson learned during Twitter’s transition to X – and explore other methods that allow for direct audience ownership, such as email.  

Reflect on these crucial insights from our North America social team to devise a forward-looking strategy. 

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If you want to find out more, reach out directly to the team at social@fgsglobal.com.