What We're Watching in Food & Ag - Week of November 2

Tuesday’s midterm elections delivered big wins for Democrats across Washington, DC and state capitols, with its impact on food and agriculture policy already stirring conversations in farm country, at kitchen tables, and amid committee offices.

• Democrats swept control of both the U.S. House and U.S. Senate with the current tally at 253-161 in the House and 54-44 in the Senate, with several races still outstanding. 

• Democrats also flipped Republican governorships in Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, and Texas—gaining their first gubernatorial majority since 2006—as well as state agriculture commissioner seats in Georgia and Texas.

• Rural counties across the country swung more than 15 points toward Democrats compared to 2024, per The Washington Post.

• Tony Lyons, co-president of MAHA PAC and close ally of U.S. Department of Health & Human Services (HHS) Sec. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., is now hedging the movement’s position after MAHA-endorsed Republicans suffered defeats in Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, notes The Hill. 

• According to NBC News, exit polls showed voters were unswayed by Republican efforts to shore up concerns across rural and urban voters, with 63% of voters believing the Iran war was a mistake, 58% concerned about grocery costs, and 65% saying Trump's policies have "worsened the economy."

The Democratic wave will fundamentally restructure the congressional agriculture committees that craft food and farm policy.

• Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) is on deck to chair the Senate Agriculture Committee, where he is likely to prioritize water and conservation policy as well as delaying cuts to nutrition programs, per Farm Journal’s AgWeb.However, Sherrod Brown’s election in Ohio could complicate the succession if Democrats choose to restore his prior seniority. 

• An unexpected change to the committee follows the defeat of Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS), who founded and chaired the Senate MAHA Caucus. Meanwhile, Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) is currently trailing Democrat Scott Colom in a race that has yet to be called.

• On the House side, Reps. Shontel Brown (D-OH) and Jim Costa (D-CA) are competing for the Agriculture Committee gavel, succeeding outgoing ranking member Angie Craig (D-MN). Meanwhile, eleven House Republicans will be departing the Committee, including Reps. David Valadao, Zach Nunn, Derrick Van Orden, Monica De La Cruz, and Rob Bresnahan who all lost their election. Four races impacting GOP members of the Committee remain uncalled.

As FarmDoc Daily notes, the farm bill, now three years overdue, faces a critical juncture in the lame-duck session before the new Congress is sworn in on Jan. 3. Additionally, government funding expires Dec. 11, and many farm-state lawmakers are seeking to attach farm aid to any year-end spending package, per RFD-TV.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s food fight is coming to Brussels

Politico EU

No New Crops

Ambrook 

‘We Need to Win.’ Inside the Five-Year Quest to Reinvent the Goldfish.

The Wall Street Journal

Sysco Is Ruining American Restaurants. Or Saving Them.

The New York Times

The USDA’s Food and Nutrition Administration (FNA) is moving forward with approving SNAP food restriction waivers in Montana, North Dakota, South Carolina, and Virginia. As Newsweek reported, the agency published approval notices this week following a mandated comment period to correct the procedural flaws that led a federal judge to strike down five other state waivers in June. FNA acknowledged that it received dozens of comments opposing the waivers, citing concerns about stigma, health impacts, and retailer confusion, but stated it "carefully considered all comments and determined that none of the comments received were significant." 

• The four states are now authorized to proceed with banning the purchase of targeted foods, such as soda and candy.

The USDA's updated SNAP retailer stocking standards took effect Wednesday, requiring authorized retailers to stock 28 varieties of staple foods (including perishables), a significant jump from the previous 11-item threshold. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani sent a letter to USDA Sec. Brooke Rollins requesting the agency delay enforcement until May 2027, arguing the rule will devastate the city's bodegas, says AM New York. His request aligns him with a coalition of 12 GOP senators and major convenience store trade associations, who have warned the administration that failing to delay the rule could trigger a mass exodus of convenience retailers from the SNAP program, severely restricting food access in urban and rural food deserts alike, Agri-Pulse reported. 

Upcoming on the Hill

• Tuesday, November 10^th: the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry will hold a hearing to consider pending nominations.

Dunkin' is moving into the cereal aisle. General Mills is launching three Dunkin'-inspired cereals in December, including Cinnamon Caramel Latte and a Walmart-exclusive Vanilla Graham Latte flavor, Food Navigator reported.

Good news for tea drinkers, with a catch. A study of nearly 500,000 adults found that drinking tea at least three days a week was linked to an 11% lower risk of vascular disease, with black tea outperforming green. But sipping it "burning hot" flipped that benefit into a higher risk instead, per Science Daily.

According to USDA's Economic Research Service, soybean oil used for biofuel production is forecast to surpass 17.8 billion pounds in 2026/27, exceeding its use in food, feed, and industrial applications for the first time and accounting for more than half of total domestic soybean oil consumption.

• Soybean oil is the dominant vegetable oil in the U.S., making up half of total vegetable oil and rendered animal fat consumption.

• Biofuel production is set to further increase following the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s release of record-high Renewable Volume Obligations for calendar years 2026 and 2027.

• Strong biofuel demand is forecast to push soybean oil prices to record highs, spurring a record crush volume made possible by expanded U.S. crush capacity built between 2021 and 2026.

• The U.S. soybean season-average farm price is forecast at $12.00 per bushel in 2026/27, the highest since 2023/24.