When it comes to issues related to the economy, U.S. voters still favor former President Donald Trump over Vice President Harris. However recent polls indicate his advantage has narrowed.
Trump now averages a six-percentage-point edge on the economy, compared with a 12-point lead against President Joe Biden earlier this year, based on an analysis of five national polls conducted in September.
For example, a recent Fox News poll found that 51 percent of registered voters favor Trump on the economy, compared with 46 percent who favor Harris. Trump had a 15-point advantage over Biden in March.
Current data indicates the actual economy is improving, but it has not fully impacted voters’ perceptions. According to Moody’s:
“The most important economic variable in the model is the cost of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline. Anything less than $3.50 per gallon favors Harris, and anything over that favors former President Trump.” AAA reports the current average cost per gallon is $3.22.
“Fixed mortgage rates also matter a lot. Anything less than 6.5% favors Harris and anything over that favors Trump.” According to Mortgage Daily News, the current fixed rate for 30-year mortgages is 6.2%.
“Real (after-inflation) household income growth is also key to the election. With wages consistently rising faster than inflation in all swing states this too favors Harris.”
Moody’s election model currently predicts a Harris victory, but they note the race is close and it would not take much of a change in the economy to flip the advantage to the former president. The longshoreman’s strike, for example, was the kind of negative shock that could shift the advantage to Trump.