It has been a troubled summer for the Labour Government, with the Prime Minister coming into conference with colleagues and the media alike openly speculating on the longevity of his premiership. He has had a direct challenge from Andy Burnham, Mayor of Greater Manchester, and slightly more discreetly, members of his Cabinet such as Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood are seen as being ‘on manoeuvres’.
The stakes for Keir Starmer in Liverpool this week could therefore not have been higher – the PM needed to use his speech to the conference hall on Tuesday to begin to change the narrative that his Government has already stalled, a little over one year in, with MPs openly bemoaning the ‘end of days’ feeling about what is still a fairly new government.
Starmer did a decent job of rallying the party faithful yesterday afternoon, throwing meat to the Labour Party base by seeking to demonstrate clear red water between the Labour Party and Reform UK. He confidently leaned into his decision to label Reform UK’s immigration policies as ‘racist’, and defended a more open, inclusive definition of ‘patriotism’ over what the PM sought to portray as the ‘anti-Britain’ small-mindedness represented by Reform UK.
His speech to the hall was heavy on political rhetoric – and in many ways is probably one of the most political speeches Starmer has ever given (he is understood to have had a closer hand in the writing of yesterday’s speech). The PM’s tone was markedly more authentic and fluent as he staged a spirited defence of the everyday things he argued represent ‘real Britain’, while seeking to paint Nigel Farage as someone who is fundamentally ill-at-ease with the country he wants to lead.
Starmer framed the challenge of Reform UK as a “fight for the soul of our country every bit as big as rebuilding Britain after the war,” describing the current political moment as a “fork in the road,” with voters facing a dramatic choice between a Labour Party representing “decency” and “renewal” and Reform UK, representing “decline” and “grievance.”
The challenge the Prime Minister now faces is that while his words will have largely told the Labour Party what it wants to hear, he has now set out a clear point of difference with Farage on the toxic immigration debate, and can expect to be repeatedly asked to explain why his characterisation of Farage and his policies as ‘racist’ might not also extend to Reform UK voters themselves. It will be incredibly difficult for the PM to row back from this stance and raises the stakes for Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood to demonstrate that Labour can get a grip of the borders in practice and provide a compelling answer to Farage through delivery.
In short, the Government now has nowhere to hide on migration and small boats and will not be able to reclose the pandoras box they have opened by attacking Farage so personally and publicly. Meanwhile, it is by no means clear that Starmer’s attempt to appeal to the social liberalism of his party’s left will have done enough to stem the flow of support away from Labour to the Greens or Liberal Democrats in key urban seats.