Coming into their Bournemouth Conference, the Liberal Democrats can reflect on recent success: at the 2024 General Election, the party returned over 72 MPs – the largest for a third-party in a century; Ed Davey is amongst the most popular (or, more accurately, the least unpopular) politicians in the country; they have overtaken the Conservatives in local government; and the Party is even close to doing the same in the national polls. This is uncharted territory for the Liberal Democrats in recent times.
Yet, beneath this success, there are clear tensions. The Lib Dems have failed to match Reform’s success at driving the political agenda (Davey argues they have suffered from insufficient media focus), while the temporary polling highs that the party achieved during the Brexit years and in the lead-up to the 2010 election are not close to being matched. Frustration at Davey’s stunt-led approach to grabbing media attention is building with some in the Party arguing this points to a lack of seriousness for a potential future party of government.
The Liberal Democrat perspective on opposition: A ceiling or a stepping stone?
The historic haul of 72 seats presents the Lib Dem leadership with a difficult choice that will shape their approach until the next general election. And in Bournemouth, there were two schools of thought: first, that this is close to the Lib Dems’ ceiling electorally and that the aim should consequently be retaining their current seats and targeting only a few more – through doubling down on winning over former Conservative voters.
Alternatively, some believe that this could be a stepping stone to regaining the Liberal Democrats’ long-lost title as one of the two big parties of British politics, as British politics undergoes a once-in-a century realignment. Proponents of this view see an opportunity to further stride into not only the blue wall of leafy shire seats, but also now-Labour urban areas that have historically had Liberal Democrat MPs, such as Bristol, Bermondsey, and Greater Manchester – through an increased focus on issues such as Gaza and trans rights. Yet the party is still haunted by Jo Swinson’s leadership and worries that the stepping stone approach will only spread its votes too thinly – ultimately causing an overall loss of seats.
Davey appeared to come down decisively in favour of the stepping stone approach during his Conference speech, saying that his ambition for the Party “has no ceiling”. He also outlined a new target to beat the Conservatives at the next General Election for the first time in over a century. More widely, party activists and staffers were excited about “Operation Leapfrog”, the Party’s plan to win from third place in some seats.
Despite this lofty rhetoric, the announcements and policies from Bournemouth were still firmly based on winning over what Davey describes as “Conservatives who feel politically homeless”. Rather than reaching into former Lib Dem seats in Bristol, Manchester, and London, this suggests the Party will in practice remain committed to consolidating its new base and continuing to chip away at the blue wall.
Davey is not intending to build a supersized version of the electoral collation the Lib Dems have had during previous eras of success but rather to capitalise on a disintegrating Conservative vote.