What’s Changed Since Our Last Report:
Events since our last report on June 5 have fundamentally changed the dynamics of the 2024 election. All previous assumptions must be reconsidered.
Here’s what we know today:
President Biden’s decision to step aside, followed by Vice President Harris’ ascension to the Democratic nomination, has fundamentally altered the trajectory of the race.
Democrats are newly energized – 8 in 10 Democrats say they are satisfied or somewhat satisfied with Harris as the nominee. Only 4 in 10 Democrats had been satisfied with Biden as the nominee (AP-NORC poll).
Democrat’s enthusiasm has translated into significant fundraising – Harris for President announced it raised $310 million in July, a record amount raised in a single month.
Among Democrats, the initial reaction to Harris’ selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz has been positive, but it is too early to tell if it will have an impact on the race.
As former President Trump and his team adjust to the dynamics of the new race, it’s clear they can’t run the same campaign they planned to run against Biden.
Trump’s VP pick – Ohio Senator JD Vance – has faced some challenges in his national rollout, and the former President has made comments minimizing the importance of his pick for Vice President.
With the Supreme Court ruling in his favor in the presidential immunity case and Judge Aileen Cannon dismissing the classified documents case, the legal threats to the former president have – for the most part – been pushed past the election.
The attempt to assassinate Trump has further elevated concerns about political violence before and after the election.