What’s Changed Since Our Last Report:
Former President Trump was convicted on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. He will be sentenced on July 11, four days before the start of the Republican Convention.
Prior to conviction, Trump’s average polling had improved in the swing states of Pennsylvania and Nevada, while Biden’s had improved in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona. Regardless, based on pre-conviction polls, Trump maintains a narrow lead in each swing state.
Biden and Trump have agreed to two presidential debates scheduled for June 27 on CNN and September 10 on ABC. A vice-presidential debate has been proposed for July 23 or August 13 on CBS.
Arizona’s Senate race ratings now lean more Democratic, while Nevada’s is now a pure toss-up (changed from lean Democrat).
Control of the House has moved to Toss Up from Toss Up/Leans Democrat