What’s Changed Since Our Last Report:
As we head into the 2024 U.S. election campaign’s final weeks, the presidential race and battle for the control of Congress remain incredibly tight. While Republicans are likely to take control of the Senate, the campaign for the White House and House of Representatives remains a true toss up. Turnout (and whose votes count) will be the deciding factor.
Here’s what we know today:
The presidency will be decided in seven swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are polling within the margin of error in all seven states. A true toss up.
Harris and Trump squared off in a widely anticipated September 10 debate that the Vice President was widely seen to have won. Thus far President Trump has declined to participate in a second debate.
The Secret Service stopped a second assassination attempt on President Trump. The FBI and local law enforcement apprehended Ryan Wesley Routh and charged him with attempting to assassinate Trump.
Governor Tim Walz and Senator JD Vance debated October 1, largely satisfying their supporters with their performances, and most likely changing few minds. Historically, vice-presidential debates have little impact on the race.
Harris continues to maintain a substantial fundraising advantage. The Vice President raised $361 million in August and reported $404 million in cash on hand as of September 1. Trump raised $130 million in August and reported having $295 million in cash on hand as of September 1.
The probability that Republicans will take control of the Senate has increased. Republican challenger Tim Sheehy appears to have built a lead over Democratic incumbent Jon Tester in the crucial Montana Senate race, which could tip control of the chamber to the GOP.
Control of the House remains a true toss up, though chances for a Democratic takeover are likely to have improved with Harris running stronger at the top of the ticket than President Biden was.
The election is underway – early voting has begun – for example, early voting started in Pennsylvania on September 16.