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U.S. Election Intelligence Report - Post Election Update

What Happened:

Former (and future) President Donald Trump completed an extraordinary political comeback, winning the 2024 presidential election.

  • Trump won all seven swing states, increased his vote share in 92%+ of U.S. counties, and quickly claimed a “mandate” for his agenda.

  • Trump won 312 electoral votes – more than he won in 2016, and more than any Republican since 1988. He is also the first Republican president to win the popular vote since 2004.

  • Republicans also gained control of the Senate, picking up at least 4 seats to bring their total to 53. It is possible we could see a recount in Pennsylvania.

  • Republicans held majority of the House.

  • The victory marked the country’s biggest shift to the right since Ronald Reagan won

    in 1980.

  • White working-class men, Latino men and voters aged 18-29 shifted to Trump, fueling his win. One in three voters of color cast their ballots for Trump.

  • This was a change election, and according to exit polls, 73% of voters thought Trump was more likely to bring the change the country needed.

  • This marks the 10th major global election in 2024 where voters rejected incumbents and voted for change.

  • The Senate Republican Conference chose Senator John Thune (SD) to replace Senator Mitch McConnell as their leader, making him the presumptive Senate Majority Leader. Speaker Mike Johnson (LA-4) will continue in his post if Republicans hold the House, as expected.


Election data source: NBC News Exit Polls, November 6, 2024

Read the full report here.