Update: Ukraine and Russia
Revisiting our five theses for the future
In our September update, we put forward five theses on the further implications of the war for global geopolitics. Now, a month later, there is still no end in sight to the conflict, despite Ukraine’s recent successes on the battlefield. Russia has doubled down with a mobilization and the announced annexation of four territories in Ukraine that it doesn’t even entirely control, while a (presumably) state actor has sabotaged the Nord Stream pipelines. In response, EU member states are adopting a new sanctions package. In a manner unthinkable even just a few years ago, EU governments are intervening in energy markets to secure supplies for the coming winter and dampen the effect of skyrocketing prices on industry and households. Within the EU, Italy's newly elected right-wing populist coalition, despite the pro-Ukrainian stance of the presumptive new prime minister, poses new challenges to achieving European unity. More than enough developments to put our five theses to the test.