A year of compounding data errors at the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has eroded trust in the agency once regarded as the gold standard of global agricultural market information.
The string of crop data errors are not abstract.
In January, USDA’s final estimate for 2025 harvested corn acres came in at 91.3 million acres – up 1.3% from its previous estimate and 5.2% higher than its June figure, noted Reuters. The revision sank corn futures by 5.4%.
Then Reuters detailed in July that USDA reported a nearly 500% increase in weekly U.S. beef export sales, noting a high of 126,062 metric tons. The agency revised the figure down 90% a week later to 12,064 metric tons.
In October, USDA lowered its estimate of how much of last year’s corn harvest was fed to livestock after reporting a bigger-than-anticipated jump in grain stocks, per Reuters. Later in the month, Reuters noted the USDA acknowledged a “processing error” that produced inaccurate corn production forecasts across the Midwest. The correction was followed by the largest single-day decline in December corn futures, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.
The data reliability problem extends beyond crop reports. According to Reuters, USDA farm debt figures, already at a record $605 billion, likely understate what farmers actually owe, as a surge in non-traditional lending from equipment manufacturers, cooperatives, and fintech firms falls outside the agency's traditional measurement framework.
The errors are feeding a vicious cycle that USDA helped create. Bloombergnotes farmer response rates to USDA are decreasing, with only a little more than a third of farmers surveyed answering questions. That compares to a 60% response rate in 2018. The board chair for USDA’s National Agriculture Statistics Service is advocating for higher participation rates, notes Brownfield Ag News.
“From the farm to the desk of the USDA, it’s not jiving this year,” Coles County Illinois farmer Karl Probst said to Brownfield Ag News.
Six Democratic senators, led by Senate Agriculture Committee Ranking Member Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), sent a letter to USDA demanding answers about the agency’s recent data errors and what role staffing losses played, reports Reuters.
In response to questions about how USDA will improve its data tabulation, Deputy Secretary Judge Stephen Vaden said, “You’ll see more on that from us on the days ahead.”
