Senior partners from Washington, New York and Berlin recently hosted a roadshow to exchange thoughts with companies and clients, from banks and law firms in Hong Kong, Beijing and Shanghai, about Trump 2.0, navigating geopolitical tensions, and how to achieve growth abroad while de-risking.
Brett O’Brien from DC, Ginny Wilmerding from New York (formerly HK), and William Klein from Berlin (formerly Beijing) lead our “Global China Bridge,” partnering with us in the region and in the U.S. and Europe to advise on China-related matters across practice areas – including government and public affairs, corporate reputation, critical situations and financial transactions.
In FGS Global’s private forums as well as events organized in partnership with the U.S. China Business Council, AmCham, EuroCham, and China Crossroads, our visitors talked to hundreds of our contacts about the general theme of Cross-Border Business Strategies in a Trump 2.0 World,
Here are some key highlights from the discussions:
Key features of Trump’s second term: Trump faces few challenges from Congress at present as the Republican Party enjoys a majority, albeit a slim one, in both Houses of Congress. With a better understanding of how to utilize the tools of government to advance his agenda, Trump has picked team members with strong points of view on China but who will take cues from him in implementing what have already been some surprising initiatives.
Domestic policy priorities: President Trump’s priorities include shutting down illegal immigration, renewing and expanding tax cuts introduced in his first term, reshaping government and spending priorities, and eliminating DEI programs.
Trade and commercial policies: Trump's trade and commercial policies have garnered global attention, targeted America’s allies and foes alike, and caused uncertainty in markets worldwide. The threat and imposition of tariffs have secured some initial wins but also prompted concerns about higher costs for US consumers, adjustments to global trade and investment flows, and a reshaping of the strategic environment for global companies.
China policies: The President’s national security team views China as the greatest challenge facing America. His own rhetoric, however, has included mixed messages since the November election and some believe that both sides may be contemplating a possible meeting in the coming months. Trump’s America First Investment Policy aims to restrict certain investments from and to China, yet the intention to use CFIUS for this purpose should ensure that inbound investments will continue to be reviewed on a case-by-case basis and won’t comprise a wholesale decoupling.
Global trade and security dynamics: Some predict that the pressure both the EU and China face from the US will bring them together to address differences and deepen cooperation where they may have common interests, such as protecting the WTO system and advancing the UN climate agenda. An EU-China rapprochement in response to Trump has limits, however, due to an increase in mutual distrust and Europe’s concerns over Chinese manufacturing overcapacity.
Advice to global businesses: Adaptability and resilience are essential in this unpredictable environment. Companies need to anticipate shifts in the geopolitical and regulatory environment through scenario planning and effective stakeholder engagement.
For more insights, please reach out to the Global China Bridge Team.
