Graeme Trayner is a partner in the Washington D.C. office, specializing in research and insights
Irrespective of who wins and loses on Tuesday, this election season will underscore one of the defining fault-lines in America – between those with a college diploma and those without. In the words of the Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini, the college diploma is now not only the new “marker of class” in the United States but a key dividing line in American politics.
Over the past quarter of century, we’ve witnessed a major re-alignment based on education in each party’s base; accelerated by Trump but pre-dating his rise. While between 1952 and 2000 a majority of white voters with college degrees described themselves as Republican, by 2020 white college-educated voters called themselves Democrats by a 2:1 margin. But by the same 2:1 margin, white working-class, non-college Americans now favor Republicans.
This educational re-alignment comes with a geographical sorting of voters between in writer Michael Lind’s description, the hub vs. the heartland. College-educated Democrats are more likely to be found in the hubs of expensive, high density urban areas – places that attract knowledge workers - with non-college Republicans in the heartland of lower-density suburbs or exurbs.
As polling expert David Wasserman describes it in more direct terms, it’s the political geography of Whole Foods Market vs Cracker Barrel. In 2020, Biden won 85% of counties with a Whole Foods Market but only a third (32%) with a Cracker Barrel, a chain much more prevalent in rural America.
With this shift have come electoral incentives for Republicans to seek to position the Democrats as “elites”. With college-educated Democrats more likely to value cultural diversity and progressive social positions, Republican candidates have sought to paint their rivals as out of touch with everyday Americans, on issues such as immigration, education and social issues. It’s the trend we see in electoral politics around the world, with the right seeking to depict center-right parties as untethered from their historical working-class bases.
It's against this backdrop that we should look at how big business has found itself caught in the crossfire of the cultural wars – with conservatives attacking “woke” businesses for their positions on DEI and ESG, and other perceived liberal-left positions. Indeed, many large brands are grappling with expectations from college-educated employees and other stakeholders to take a stance on cultural or political issues, while mindful that many customers may not share the same sentiments.
With this dividing line set, what then are the long-term implications for organizations of all kinds?
The trend creates more incentives for politicians to adopt economically populist positions; with Republicans seeking to maintain appeal to working-class voters. And with college-educated liberals now favoring more progressive economics too, the base of support for a more libertarian, free-market approach is shrinking.
We should expect to see more flashpoints on issues where values and cost conflict across the diploma divide, such as climate change. Attempts to bring about net zero carbon emissions and a transition to renewable energy sources are particularly fraught, especially if working-class voters believe they are paying the price in higher energy or gas bills.
As Jason Willick argues in The Washington Post, the diploma divide is likely to exacerbate the trust crisis in the United States. With most institutions run by the college-educated, Republicans will trust institutions – whether businesses, universities, those in science and health – less. Republican politicians then will find electoral mileage in taking populist stances against these institutions or exercising their power against them.
What this underscores for all organizations is to be mindful of the diploma divide, and the potential risks this poses for institutions that either get too far ahead of mainstream opinion or leaves them exposed to attacks from those seeking to benefit from populist outrage.