Insight: Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will not seek re-election as head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, undermined by a funding scandal and low approval ratings. That means Japan will have a new leader come the end of September, though the LDP will remain in power – as it has been almost continuously since 1955. Several party heavyweights will contest the succession, most of them from the same generation as 67-year-old Kishida. Those looking for more of a break and to re-energise the LDP ahead of 2025 elections are talking up former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi -- son of a famous premier in the early 2000s and still in his 40s.
Impact: Does a change in prime minister signify anything in Japan? The question is worth asking and, given the LDP’s almost inevitable retention of the levers of power, the answer is generally ‘No’. But sometimes the man at the top does matter: Shinzo Abe certainly did, as did Junichiro Koizumi, father of one of the potential successors this time around. Kishida, while no Abe, resolutely continued his predecessor’s robust foreign and defense policies in times of geopolitical turmoil, supported Japan’s economic revival, presided over a surge in the Japanese stock market and launched a program aimed at a new form of capitalism, emphasising technology development as well as a revamp of Japan’s sleepy asset management industry. Citizens and international allies will hope for continuity in all those areas. But Japan has plenty of other issues: imagine a premier that decisively advances the country’s decarbonization efforts and looks at ways to stem the demographic decline.