Raucous Caucus

Donald Trump’s victory in last night’s Iowa caucuses was so commanding the Associated Press called it merely half an hour after the voting started.

The swift call was not without controversy – since not everyone had voted. But as a former AP political reporter involved in calling races, their process is based on rigorous analysis of whether other candidates can numerically catch up – i.e. sometimes the reality is clear from the start.

Regardless, barring an act of God, Trump is almost assuredly going to be the Republican nominee facing a rematch with President Biden that’s anyone’s game.

As our research team laid out in slide eight of this election analysis last week, neither candidate is popular. Three major unknowns could upend all of this: Trump’s criminal prosecutions, court decisions on his removal from the ballot or either (or both) of the candidate’s health.

What is known is their very different management styles. So organizations should be preparing for administrations that could take policy into one of two opposite directions. The outcome will have sweeping implications on the work nearly all of us do, but many of those impacts are predictable and can be planned for.

One other likelihood is that no matter what the outcome, some of your stakeholders will feel robbed while others will feel vindicated, which could mean significant volatility. In the words of our colleague Jennifer Loven closing out the election analysis deck: “In the midst of the 2024 election, companies and organizations should aim to be beacons of competence and integrity in a world losing faith in institutions and be prepared to need to stand up publicly for democratic norms.”

A new global C-suite study is the first to capture the profound people-centered transformation facing businesses today. 

Companies are increasingly seen as integral parts of a larger societal ecosystem, responsible for creating value for all stakeholders, including colleagues, customers, the community and capital markets. 

Following a massive global survey and more than 450 C-suite interviews, the Institute for Real Growth and University of Oxford’s Future of Marketing Initiative found successful businesses are differentiated by how they view and prioritize stakeholder engagement in their strategy. Among the new findings:

• 90% of leaders at overperforming businesses approach stakeholder value creation as a business growth opportunity, in contrast to only 50% of leaders at underperforming businesses. 

• 69% of high-performance business leaders say their stakeholders’ needs are considered in corporate decision-making.

• 71% reported that “purpose” guides their decision-making, compared to just 7% at underperforming businesses.

Bottom line: Overperforming companies embrace the advantages that come by serving all their stakeholders, rather than approaching them from a place of fear.

IRG is an independent research institution supported by WPP, Meta, Google, the NYU School of Professional Studies, Saïd Business School at the University of Oxford among other organizations. FGS Global supported the research as IRG’s exclusive strategic communications partner. Check it out here.

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​Taiwan’s election Saturday was the most consequential in recent decades, with significant implications for the global business environment. 

Lai Ching-te was elected president – a record third successive four-year term for the Democratic Progressive Party, which also lost its majority in the 113-seat legislature.  

Against the complex backdrop of ongoing cross-strait tensions with mainland China, how should global companies position themselves in this fluid and sensitive post-election period?

• Kick the tires: Businesses, particularly in sectors like consumer electronics, auto and IoT, need to understand the role mainland China and Taiwan play in upstream and downstream value chains, revenue and profit. Weigh the cost of diversification against the risk of decoupling. When incorporating Taiwan scenarios into strategic planning, assume a conflict, no matter how unlikely or slow building, would lead to significant Western decoupling from the Chinese economy. 

• Stay savvy and watch the signals: Geopolitical tensions over Taiwan likely will continue to generate negative headlines and uncertainties. Ensure access to an unbiased view of this evolving complex situation and the significance of future developments. 

• Beware of obvious reputation traps: Avoid expressing a political view on the election results or wider situation. Conduct an audit of external and internal materials to ensure broadly accepted nomenclature, for example geography names on “contact us” web pages or automated online drop-down menus, the labeling of maps and other potentially sensitive communications. 

For more, the FGS Global China Bridge team is at GlobalChinaBridge@fgsglobal.com.