Orders of MAGA-nitude

Changes under the new administration, already coming at a fast clip, are only expected to accelerate as Trump's cabinet picks are confirmed. Amidst this uncertain landscape, organizations and businesses should prepare for a wide range of possible futures. 

• Extreme Disruption: an ultra-MAGA administration begins breaking precedents. The administration, to move quickly on delivering on campaign promises, seeks new uses of executive authority, alters existing international alliances, uses impoundment to reduce spending, deploys the military to secure the border and maintain order and makes use of latitude created by the Supreme Courts presidential immunity ruling for “official acts.”

• Bully Pulpit Government: a MAGA-lite administration begins breaking precedents.  The administration makes provocative comments but follows with less disruptive policy prescriptions. President Trump uses social media, public events and media interviews to drive his narrative, focus public attention and establish a negotiating position. Ultimate policy changes do not go as far as the position originally staked out.

• Reshaping Government: ultra-MAGA administration maintains precedents. The administration uses existing law, legislative and regulatory processes, government procedures and court rulings to dramatically reshape government, public policy and international alliances. Though the administration advances significant changes, those changes are supported by established law and precedent.

• Business Focused Government: MAGA-lite administration maintains precedents. The administration focuses primarily on policies that strengthen the business environment, including lower corporate taxes, regulatory relief, a focus on domestic manufacturing and increased domestic energy production. The administration creates a relatively predictable business environment that prioritizes economic growth.

Through scenario planning, organizations can identify specific actions to take to prepare now for whatever future emerges. 

To learn more, reach out to FGS Global’s Alternative Futures team at AlternativeFutures@fgsglobal.com.

New polling is taking Americans’ temperature on President Trump’s early promises and actions after a dizzying start to his term—with many receiving more opposition than support.

According to a recent Economist/YouGov poll, Trump has received net* positive support for his promises and actions related to:

• Deporting millions of undocumented immigrants (+15 net support)

• Funding of the border wall (+11)

• Ending DEI programs (+5)

In contrast, his unpopular actions and promises include:

• Pardoning participants in the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol (-19 net support)

• Seeking ownership of Greenland and the Panama Canal (-14)

• Reducing regulation on cryptocurrency (-10)

• Ending birthright citizenship (-9)

• Imposing a 10% tariff on imported goods (-8)

• Removing environmental regulations to promote fossil fuel production (-3)

Regardless, a majority of voters (53%) have said they are optimistic about the next four years with Trump as president. Two thirds perceive him as a strong leader, an increase since pre-election. And most have high expectations for his administration:

• 54% think Trump will improve the average American’s quality of life. 

• 51% think Trump will improve the way the government works.

• 55% think Trump will improve America’s standing abroad.

To learn more, reach out to FGS Global’s Alternative Futures team at AlternativeFutures@fgsglobal.com.

*the difference between the percentages in favor of and against these policies

When Thomas Mann famously said everything is politics, he might as well have been talking about the financial markets. 

Financial markets, and stakeholders more broadly, hate uncertainty. November’s presidential election settled one major source of uncertainty that affected markets for the past year. But we just traded it for a different uncertainty – the impact of President Trump’s policies on the economy. 

A key goal of corporate communications is to help investors and other stakeholders develop a framework for understanding and assessing future unknowns that could impact a company’s operations and financial performance.

But there’s so much we don’t know that could impact regulation, inflation, economic growth and other macro economic factors. These include how, when and where the Trump administration imposes tariffs, whether impacted countries retaliate, the administration’s posture toward acquisitions, tax benefits for certain sectors and activities like electric vehicles, further interest rate actions by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical developments in places such as the Middle East and Ukraine. Just to name a few. 

In this environment, corporate communications teams must: 

1. work in close coordination with Government Affairs, Investor Relations and other colleagues;

2. avoid the temptation to provide outlooks where they have limited visibility; 

3. and be nimble as the facts and circumstances change. 

Most importantly, there is one area where businesses and their leaders can provide some certainty – in their mission and values.  In an uncertain environment, clearly articulating your core guiding principles and why your company matters can help mitigate threats and provide a reassuring touchstone for all your stakeholders.