All (Legislative) Things Must Pass

President Trump and congressional Republicans have an ambitious legislative agenda for 2025. There are several “must-pass” pieces of legislation adding complexity to an already crowded legislative calendar. Our Alternative Futures team outlines the key issues that must be addressed:

• Debt ceiling: The U.S. hit its debt limit on January 1, 2025. The Treasury is using “extraordinary measures” to postpone the immediate need to lift the debt ceiling, potentially delaying action until late spring or early summer. As part of the FY2026 budget bill, Republicans have proposed raising the debt ceiling by four trillion dollars.

• Funding the government: Congress has funded the government through March 14, 2025 – they need to fund it for the remainder of the fiscal year. Congress must extend government funding before March 14 to avoid a government shutdown. Given the vast differences between the parties, Republicans seem relegated to find consensus amongst themselves on funding for the remainder of the fiscal year. If they can’t find agreement, they would need Democrat votes to keep the government running. Democrats are divided on whether to try to use the threat of a shutdown to gain leverage in budget discussions.

• Affordable Care Act enhanced premium tax credits: Funds for enhanced premium tax credits, authorized under the American Rescue Plan Act, will lapse, causing many Americans' health insurance premiums to increase significantly. Trump and Congress will have to decide what action, if any, to take to address the premium increases.

• Farm bill: Congress must find a long-term solution to reauthorize the Farm Bill before it expires at the end of the fiscal year.

With continued shakeups at mainstream media outlets, journalists are increasingly turning to platforms like Substack to share their reporting. Freelance and in-house journalists alike are flocking to the platform to share unfiltered content directly with readers, taking advantage of Substack’s hands-off moderation policy.

Becoming Substack savvy may help your organization engage with new audiences and emerging voices in the industry. Our colleagues at the Health Media Insights newsletter offer a Substack snapshot to consider as part of your earned media strategy this year:

• What is Substack? Substack is a free, blog-style platform that allows creators to publish original content, including newsletters, podcasts and articles, and share that content directly with subscribers. Writers can monetize content through a paid subscription model, with Substack taking a 10% cut of the revenue.

• Who is on Substack? While mainstream outlets have yet to establish a significant presence on Substack, the platform has attracted many former and current journalists from major outlets, like Washington Post health reporter Dan Diamond and Vox senior science reporter Julia Belluz, as well as The Free Press, a new media company run by former New York Times writer and editor Bari Weiss.

• What is the reach of a Substack? Each Substack has a unique audience and reach. The most popular writers on Substack boast subscriber numbers in the millions, rivaling some traditional outlets, while others cater to smaller, niche audiences.

• Be aware: Substack's lack of moderation and editorial guidance means that content can be looser, more personality-driven and less thoroughly fact-checked. Research target Substacks carefully to ensure the author’s brand and target audience aligns with your earned media goals.

To sign up for Health Media Insights, email health@fgsglobal.com. 

Despite GOP control of Washington, policy hurdles do exist. Some items that could slow MAGA momentum include:

• Reconciliation process / fiscal reality: The new administration will rely on reconciliation to bypass a Senate filibuster, but budget rules limit legislation's reach. GOP leaders have conflicting strategies, and fiscal limitations will impose constraints.

• Courts: The Trump administration’s new claims of executive authority have triggered numerous court challenges. Court rulings over the next few months will likely have a significant impact on executive power.

• Senate filibuster: Senate Democrats can block legislation, seek compromise or pursue bipartisan agreement using the filibuster. If frustration with legislative progress grows, Republicans may push to alter or end the filibuster.

• Lack of clear authority / breaking precedents: Trump’s theory of executive authority is on its way to being tested in court. The administration likely wants validation of its theory that the constitution should be interpreted to prohibit Congress from enacting laws that limit a president’s absolute control of the executive branch.

• Narrow legislative majorities / policy differences: The GOP holds a narrow House majority and faces divisions within its ranks, making it difficult for Speaker Johnson to pass legislation. For now, he can afford to lose only one GOP House member (for any reason) on any vote.

• Financial markets: Market reactions to Trump’s policies could influence their outcome, particularly with “bond vigilantes” impacting economic policy.

• Public opinion / stakeholders: Some MAGA policies face public opposition. The administration is sensitive to public opinion and may adjust policies accordingly.

• Regulatory / rulemaking process: Trump administration changes must undergo the regulatory process, slowing implementation and allowing opposition input.

• 2026 election map: GOP members in competitive races may struggle between primary challenges and general election concerns.

• Must-pass legislation: Several pieces of must-pass legislation will impact the legislative calendar and potential pace of change.

For additional guidance, reach out to FGS Global’s Alternative Futures team at AlternativeFutures@fgsglobal.com.