With just three days until a partial government shutdown, Congress is inching ever-so-slowly toward a deal. House and Senate appropriators and staff continue to finalize FY2024 spending bills and many of the funding levels have been agreed to, but they remain far apart on policy riders concerning gun rights, abortion and earmarks, among other issues.
Last week, the ultra-conservative Freedom Caucus released a letter cautioning House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to uphold GOP policy provisions; otherwise, a majority of House Republicans would oppose any spending deal. And earlier this week Republicans missed another self-imposed deadline to release the four bills set to expire on Friday: Agriculture, Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, Energy and Water, and Transportation, Housing, and Urban Development.
Although neither party would benefit from a shutdown, history shows Republicans generally have more to lose under the circumstances. The prospect of a shutdown, exacerbated by the persistent ideological conflicts and self-inflicted chaos within the historically slim House GOP majority, pose a potential threat to Republicans’ electoral chances in the upcoming elections.
President Biden and congressional leadership are set to sit down together to find a path forward but, as with previous spending fights, the path forward largely rests on Speaker Johnson, who has defended Republicans’ riders and expressed opposition to more short-term funding resolutions. To avoid a shutdown, he will have to concede on one or both of those positions to secure enough votes to keep the government open.