Slouching Towards Shutdown

With just three days until a partial government shutdown, Congress is inching ever-so-slowly toward a deal. House and Senate appropriators and staff continue to finalize FY2024 spending bills and many of the funding levels have been agreed to, but they remain far apart on policy riders concerning gun rights, abortion and earmarks, among other issues. 

Last week, the ultra-conservative Freedom Caucus released a letter cautioning House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to uphold GOP policy provisions; otherwise, a majority of House Republicans would oppose any spending deal. And earlier this week Republicans missed another self-imposed deadline to release the four bills set to expire on Friday: Agriculture, Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, Energy and Water, and Transportation, Housing, and Urban Development. 

Although neither party would benefit from a shutdown, history shows Republicans generally have more to lose under the circumstances. The prospect of a shutdown, exacerbated by the persistent ideological conflicts and self-inflicted chaos within the historically slim House GOP majority, pose a potential threat to Republicans’ electoral chances in the upcoming elections.  

President Biden and congressional leadership are set to sit down together to find a path forward but, as with previous spending fights, the path forward largely rests on Speaker Johnson, who has defended Republicans’ riders and expressed opposition to more short-term funding resolutions. To avoid a shutdown, he will have to concede on one or both of those positions to secure enough votes to keep the government open.

​Two years after Russia’s full-on invasion of Ukraine, our European Strategic Foresight and Geopolitics team outlined expected developments for 2024 and what companies can do. 

Here are the key takeaways:

• The conflict in its current form will likely continue throughout 2024, with the timing and nature of a lasting settlement remaining impossible to predict.

• We expect Europe and the transatlantic community will continue to back Ukraine militarily and financially until a settlement, however defined, is reached—even as Russia’s capabilities grow and debates in the West over support for Ukraine intensify.

• Donors now estimate Ukraine will need $486 billion for recovery and reconstruction in the coming decade, and about $15 billion for short-term priorities in 2024. 

Despite the evolving situation on the ground, companies can position themselves now for a post-settlement Ukraine by contributing to reconstruction efforts. Here’s how:

• Engage. Governments and international financial donors have resources to help companies understand the needs and opportunities of reconstruction. Companies should proactively engage to better understand the landscape of needs and help governments recognize how companies can contribute effectively to reconstruction.

• Invest. Funding for only about one third of reconstruction and renewal efforts has been secured so far. Ukrainian authorities and international donors are now working to support and mobilize the private sector in support of meeting these short-term aims.

• Support.UNHCR, ICRC and other reputable organizations mitigating the humanitarian fallout of Russia’s aggression continue to solicit donations to finance their efforts.

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Microsoft is spearheading a series of collaborations with media entities to integrate generative AI into journalism – a move that may enable media outlets to future-proof themselves as they reorganize into leaner organizations amidst falling subscription rates and declining social traffic. 

These initiatives will assist media outlets in developing and honing guidelines and methods for the ethical application of AI in journalism and business operations while also educating upcoming journalists on the optimal use of AI technologies. Microsoft positions these collaborations as having the potential to streamline time-consuming newsroom tasks, grow audiences and build sustainable business operations for media outlets.

Partnerships are being formed with a variety of organizations, including Semafor, The Craig Newmark Graduate School of Journalism at CUNY, The Online News Association, The GroundTruth Project and Nota.

Despite the potential benefits of this initiative, it may also represent a move from Microsoft to attempt to mitigate the worst of the impact that AI may have on the media industry, as risks of disinformation grow through quick and easy content generation.

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