The coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and the subsequent escalation across the Gulf have thrust global business into a new period of uncertainty, with the duration of disruption now the critical variable. While markets have so far avoided panic, the ripple effects are already being felt across energy, logistics and financial sectors.
FGS Global’s geopolitics experts have outlined the business implications as they currently stand:
Energy markets on edge: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz—gateway for 20% of global oil and 80% of Asian crude imports—has slashed tanker traffic, with major insurers suspending war risk coverage. LNG supply is also sharply curtailed, notably with Qatari production offline, sending European and Asian gas prices soaring by roughly 70%.
Supply chain and shipping disruptions: Maritime and aviation routes are under threat, with attacks on tankers and regional air hubs. Shipping costs and insurance premiums are expected to rise, and business travel faces ongoing hurdles. The State Department is facilitating charter flights from the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Jordan for American citizens, and will continue to secure additional capacity as security conditions allow. They are assisting with limited commercial flights from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman and Egypt.
Muted market response—for now: Despite the turmoil, Brent crude remains stable and equities are only modestly down, reflecting confidence in U.S. supply, Chinese reserves and a swift resolution to the conflict. However, a protracted crisis could push oil prices toward $100/barrel and hit corporate earnings.
Corporate response: Energy and logistics firms are activating contingency plans. Financial institutions are emphasizing their ability to withstand the crisis. All corporates are stressing employee safety and continuity, with staff in the region advised to work remotely.
Sanctions & cyber threats: Heightened U.S. sanctions enforcement and the risk of Iranian cyber retaliation mean companies must reassess compliance and cybersecurity readiness.
For further guidance, reach out to our Geopolitical Advisory team at geopolitics@fgsglobal.com.



