Ch-ch-ch-changes

As the Trump administration continues to “flood the zone,” most every industry and organization will eventually be impacted. Given the speed at which events are unfolding, it is important to be proactive in planning. 

To help you navigate policy actions that might impact your organization, our Alternative Futures team has outlined a range of strategic approaches:

• Public opposition: Take a public stand against a Trump/GOP policy initiative. Communicate directly with internal and external stakeholders. Connect opposition to your organization’s mission, values, brand or stakeholders.

• Discreet lobbying: Express opposition in a very targeted and discreet manner, engaging key stakeholders to help amend or alter Trump/GOP policy. Keep opposition targeted and non-public to avoid escalation of policy disagreement. 

• Public support: Publicly support a GOP policy position that is in line with your organization’s interests. Communicate directly with internal and external stakeholders. Connect opposition to your organization’s mission, values, brand or stakeholders.

• Quiet compliance: Support a GOP policy initiative by complying or communicating your position with relevant stakeholders, without taking a public stance. 

Understanding the pros and cons of these potential strategic responses is an important early step in your planning. Our integrated team of policy experts and strategic communicators can help you minimize risk and capitalize on opportunities. To learn more, contact AlternativeFuturesNA@fgsglobal.com. 

Tomorrow, President Trump plans to finally implement his previously announced tariffs. America’s two closest neighbors have responded with distinctly different strategies, shaped by their economic ties to the U.S., political priorities and leverage in negotiations. 

Canada struck back hard and fast, using retaliation and resource leverage to force concessions, while Mexico is playing a longer game, prioritizing dialogue and minimal provocation to soften the blow. 

Mexico:

• Diplomatic approach: President Claudia Sheinbaum avoided immediate retaliation, focusing on cooperation; she cited 10,000 border troops and 29 cartel extraditions in a “respectful” call with Trump.

• Measured countermeasures: On March 9, Mexico announced targeted tariffs on U.S. goods and non-tariff measures like stricter Chinese import rules.

• Economic caution: Mexico prioritized preserving $680 billion trade ties, avoiding escalation despite projected 1.4–2.2 million job losses.

• Outcome: Post-March 6 auto industry pressure led Trump to adjust tariffs to 10% on non-USMCA goods, rewarding Mexico’s restraint.

Canada:

• Swift retaliation and aggressive rhetoric: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced retaliatory tariffs of 25% on $30 billion of U.S. imports (e.g., orange juice, peanut butter, appliances), part of a $107 billion package. Trudeau called Trump’s original tariffs “very dumb,” signaling defiance.

• Economic leverage: Trudeau highlighted Canada’s role as a key U.S. supplier, with Ontario Premier Doug Ford doubling U.S. truck tolls and threatening power export cuts. 

• Border security boost: The Canadian government committed $1.3 billion, appointed a “fentanyl czar” and deployed drones – despite minimal fentanyl seizures from Canada. 

• Outcome: After March 6 talks with Trump, tariffs dropped to 10% on non-USMCA goods, preserving duty-free status for qualifying exports like autos.

As Trump continues his attempts to shape government to an unprecedented degree, several signposts will signal whether the president can maintain his MAGA momentum. Our Alternative Futures team outlines the questions to keep top of mind:

• Where does Trump’s approval rating go? Republicans remain firmly behind the president, giving him a 90% approval rating. However, the president’s overall net approval rating has been dropping. Democrats disapprove of the job he’s doing (93%) and his approval rating among Independents has dropped significantly (37% approval/54% disapproval).

• How does the Trump-Elon Musk dynamic develop? By all appearances, the Trump-Musk relationship is as strong as ever. The president has fully empowered Musk and frequently praises or defends him – even holding a Tesla event at the White House.

• How will the administration react to court orders and rulings? Trump’s administration and Congress have pushed back against court rulings that go against them. The president called for the impeachment of a judge who ruled against him, and Attorney General Pam Bondi has accused the judge of interfering in national security and foreign affairs. We may be approaching a critical clash between the executive and judicial branches of government.

• Who holds the “power of the purse”? Republican members of the House and Senate have largely followed the president’s lead when it comes to the power of the purse. They have also ceded much of the ability to downsize government to Elon Musk. As DOGE cuts take hold, Congress may try to reclaim some power. Most likely, the executive branch’s authority over government spending will end up at the Supreme Court.

• Can the GOP House work effectively? So far, the House has worked effectively to advance the president’s agenda, despite the slim majority with which they are working. Challenges remain – and increase – as we move toward reconciliation.

• How will markets process the Trump agenda? There has been a lot of volatility as markets absorb the potential impacts of President Trump’s economic agenda. Thus far the trend has been down, and the Federal Reserve has forecast that Trump’s economic plans will lead to higher unemployment, faster inflation and slower growth. The direction of markets and the economy will be key in the months ahead.