Law and Disorder?

Last week, we examined four possible election outcomes using FGS’ Alternative Futures Election Analysis Framework. This week, we’ll explore how these futures could affect different sectors. Below, we consider our legislative environment: 

Maga Momentum (Trump presidency with single party control)Expect:

• Trump to work to implement Project 2025 policies and emphasize loyalty within the executive branch and civil service.

• Republicans will control Congressional committees and the national agenda.

• Trump will nominate conservative judges and possibly two Supreme Court justices.

• Steps to secure the border, restrict immigration, increase deportations and build the wall.

• Anti-abortion legislators to push for restrictive laws. 

• Trump will pardon himself and all January 6th participants.

Power Struggle (Trump presidency with a divided government)Expect:

• Democrat oversight attempts will largely be ignored by the Trump administration.

• Trump to push for tax cuts and regulatory rollbacks.

• Little legislation will move, with minimal opportunities for compromise.

• Trump will reshape the executive branch and civil service with an emphasis on loyalty.

• Trump will pardon himself and all January 6th participants while Democrats seek impeachment.

• Blue state governors to resist federal action and even sue to stop Trump policies.

Stalemate (Biden presidency with a divided government)Expect:

• Trump and Republicans to claim election fraud.

• The GOP to attempt to use legislative control to block Biden agenda and advance conservative priorities.

• The GOP to push border security, economic nationalism and deficit reduction.

• Investigations and aggressive oversight by the GOP.

• Red state governors to resist federal legislation and regulation. 

• Government funding brinkmanship could lead to shutdowns.

Progressive Push (Biden presidency with single party control)Expect:

• Trump and Republicans to claim election fraud.

• Biden to pursue progressive priorities, with liberal groups setting the agenda.

• GOP minorities and red state governors to oppose Biden’s agenda.

• GOP to push culture war, border security, economic nationalism and deficit reduction.

• The 2028 Presidential campaign to begin in the second half of 2025.

The 2024 election outcome will have some significant implications for the business sector. Here’s what that could look like within each possible future:

Maga Momentum

Expect:

• Trump to cut taxes for corporations and individuals and reduce regulatory burden and enforcement actions.

• Climate change programs to end as Trump embraces fossil fuel production.

• Trump to reimpose tariffs, increasing the risk of a trade war.

• Trump to push “get tough on China policies” and pursue a “strategic decoupling” from China.

• DEI regulation and program rollbacks.

• Trump will push Federal Reserve reforms, including a sole focus on price stability, curbing last resort lending practices and winding down its balance sheet.

Power Struggle

Expect:

Trump to cut taxes for corporations and individuals and reduce regulatory burden and enforcement actions.

• Trump to push “get tough on China” policies and pursue a ”strategic decoupling” from China.

• Trump to reimpose tariffs, increasing the risk of a trade war.

• Trump to regularly test traditional checks and balances while pushing his agenda through executive action, rulemaking and his bully pulpit.

Stalemate

Expect:

• The GOP to attempt to use legislative control to blunt Biden’s agenda and advance border security, lower corporate and individual taxes and reduce the deficit.

• The GOP legislative minority to launch investigations, issues subpoenas and attempts to conduct aggressive oversight. 

• Red state governors to resist federal legislation and regulation, increasing government dysfunction and clouding the business environment.

• Recurring brinkmanship over government funding, while only essential legislation moves.

Progressive Push

Expect:

• Biden to attempt to increase taxes on corporations and the wealthy ($400,000+) when Trump tax breaks expire.

• Legislative efforts to rebuild the economy “from the bottom up and the middle out”

• GOP to attempt to dismantle DEI programs.

• The regulatory divide between the federal government and red states to widen, impacting many businesses’ freedom to operate.

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The 2024 election outcome will have profound implications for the International Relations and Defense sectors, shaping the United States' global strategy, alliances and military priorities. Here's how each possible future might unfold:

Maga Momentum

Expect:

• Trump to return to a transactional foreign policy.

• U.S. support for NATO to decline, reducing the US military presence in Europe.

• Trump to aggressively counter China, imposing significant tariffs.

• Funding for and participation in international organizations (e.g.WHO, UNESCO, UNHRC) to decrease.

• Unconditional support for Israel and expansion of the Abraham Accords.

• Border security to become a national security priority.

• A freeze on unratified treaties/agreements.

• Trump to seek to politicize military leadership.

Power Struggle

Expect:

• Trump to return to a transactional foreign policy.

• Democrats and institutionalists to constrain Trump through courts and investigations.

• U.S. support for NATO to decline, reducing U.S. forces in Europe.

• Aggressive countering of China will face little Democratic resistance.

• Resistance to senior Pentagon and State Department appointments will lead to vacancies.

• Funding and participation in international organizations will be withheld.

• Efforts to expand the Abraham Accords.

Stalemate

Expect:

• Republicans to be unwilling to fund Biden administration priorities.

• Periodic investigations into foreign policy flashpoints, particularly Iran and China.

• Allies to grow skeptical of U.S. reliability due to executive/legislative conflict.

• Greater congressional involvement in China-related issues, with some bipartisan efforts.

• Resistance to senior Pentagon and State Department appointments will cause vacancies.

• Challenges in securing Congressional support for Ukraine.

• Trump to push Republicans in Congress to advance his interests.

Progressive Push

Expect:

• A continued pursuit of a consultative foreign policy, upholding a rules-based international order.

• Further efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with greater pressure on Israel.

• Sustained U.S. support for Ukraine and focus on the Russian threat.

• An emphasis on climate change, inclusive economic growth, AI regulations and multilateral trade agreements.

• Stronger U.S. leadership in G7 and G20.

• An effort to reduce reliance on China in high-tech supply chains and secure critical mineral partnerships.

• Greater focus on "mini-lateral" alliances like AUKUS.