Where We Go Now

It’s been a dramatic couple of weeks in the presidential race in which former President Donald Trump has repeatedly prevailed against political, legal and now even violent threats.  

1. He survived an assassination attempt by mere inches.

2. He won crucial dual legal victories as the Supreme Court strengthened presidential immunity and a federal judge dismissed serious criminal charges in the classified documents case.

3. His standing in the polls seems strengthened after a high-stakes debate the Biden campaign acknowledges was “a bad night for the president.” 

Now as Trump has chosen Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate and is poised to deliver a high-profile speech accepting the Republican nomination Thursday night, momentum is on his side. Republicans believe they are in even stronger positions to win majorities in the House and Senate. 

But if two weeks can upend the race, there’s potential for further shifts in the next four months. We will be paying particular attention to:

• How last weekend’s violence at Trump’s Pennsylvania rally changes the tone and dynamics of the race. Could there be a real shift toward national healing and unity, or will the old partisan divisions quickly return? Will either candidate shift the way they campaign amid the threats?

• The Biden campaign’s continued efforts to address concerns about the president’s candidacy – including response to their outreach to Democratic elected officials, major donors and the media.

• The impact of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee this week and the Democratic gathering in Chicago next month, including both sides’ messaging, policy agenda and party unity.

• Campaign fundraising reports: The Trump campaign claims it has achieved fundraising parity with the Biden campaign. The July FEC report will be the first opportunity to verify the true state of the financial condition of both campaigns.

• Economic conditions heading into the fall, including inflation, job creation, gas prices, interest rates and stock market performance.

Former President Trump often makes headlines for breaking convention. But Saturday’s assassination attempt is one of the few things about his campaign with precedent in American politics—starting with the attempt on President Andrew Jackson’s life in 1835 and extending, most recently, to the shooting of President Ronald Reagan in 1981. 

There are more than a few differences between Saturday’s events and John Hinckley’s attempted assassination of Reagan. But perhaps the biggest is the internet. 

In 1981, most Americans relied on newspapers and broadcast television for their news. Most didn’t realize how seriously the president had been injured for hours, and the full picture didn’t become clear for days. 

But on Saturday, against the backdrop of a social media landscape fertile for wild speculation, it took only four minutes for the first conspiracy theory to emerge. Twenty-four hours later, misinformation about the assassination attempt—from both the far right and far left—had  been viewed on X (formerly Twitter) more than 100 million times. One analysis found seven hours after the shooting, the second most popular discussion topic on X and the messaging app Telegram, after well-wishes for Trump’s recovery, focused on Democrats’ responsibility for the shooting despite no known motive.

X has become has become something of a digital public square in the years since it was founded. But critics argue Elon Musk’s actions to disband its safety and policy teams, including other efforts to reduce trust, have made it much easier for mis- and disinformation to spread. (Musk himself has played a major role in amplifying conspiracy theories in the aftermath of the shooting). 

Furthermore, Meta’s moves to suppress news on Facebook, Instagram and Threads shines an even bigger spotlight on X as a destination for breaking news—and misinformation. 

The assassination attempt on Trump has precedent going back 189 years—but the media landscape in which it took place represents an uncertain new world.