Conservatives’ summer wins are paving the way for fall bipartisan brawls.
Republican House Speaker McCarthy is currently winning some of his internal political battles. But it’s likely these actions will have left him and most Republicans politically exposed and seemingly ill-positioned to win the longer-term wars coming later this fall as we head into an important election cycle.
McCarthy's concessions to conservatives on spending and more recently social policy issues succeeded in getting them to lift their House floor blockade. That allowed McCarthy to move legislation again, including the just-passed FY24 National Defense Authorization bill. But there is more to the legislative process than just getting 218 Republican votes in the House.
Unfortunately for McCarthy, the support of 60 senators and the White House is required and it is unlikely to be found for much of the conservative agenda.
The immediate consequences of McCarthy’s actions have allowed him to avoid alienating the conservatives and to move legislation on the House floor. But there could be longer-term ramifications for McCarthy and ultimately all Republicans if they try to hold to the fiscal and policy positions they have staked out.
As you assess the entire fall legislative lineup—the issues, the politics, positions of the parties and legislative procedure—it seems clear McCarthy’s approach of making concessions to conservatives to get things done is running out of runway. At some point this fall, he will need to bring bills to the House floor that have the support of the Biden Administration and 60 senators. And these bills are likely to contain more losses than wins for his conservatives. The big question is how long McCarthy sticks with them and at what cost to the Republican Party.
