Capitol punishment?

The U.S. policy environment has entered a period of profound complexity, presenting new operational and reputational challenges for businesses. Organizations must navigate the immediate political pressures while preparing for long-term uncertainty:

• Bipartisan approaches have lost ground. Traditional lobbying models built on bipartisan relationships are losing effectiveness. Polarization rewards ideological consistency over compromise, while widening federal-state divides force companies to manage conflicting requirements across jurisdictions.

• Policy reversals complicate business planning. Frequent policy shifts between administrations create regulatory whiplash across sectors from energy to healthcare to technology. Courts provide less predictable interpretations of agency authority, further complicating long-term planning.

• Information fragmentation increases communications risk. Stakeholders often operate from divergent sets of assumptions, making unified messaging difficult. Social media amplifies reputational risk, exposing corporate positions to immediate scrutiny—even on issues tangential to core operations.

• Opportunity for a competitive advantage. Organizations that build agile government affairs capabilities can gain an edge. Localized engagement, proactive scenario planning, and maintaining relationships on both sides of the political divide enable companies to anticipate and adapt to rapid change.

• Managing political risk systematically. Treating political risk with the same rigor as market or operational risk is critical. Developing resilient policy portfolios and internal capabilities for rapid regulatory assessment positions businesses to navigate uncertainty and outperform less-prepared competitors.

To learn more, reach out to FGS Global’s Alternative Futures team at AlternativeFutures@fgsglobal.com.

Over the next four years, the policy environment will be shaped by the alignment of federal and state policy—whether state policy agendas parallel or intersect with the Trump agenda. This dynamic, combined with evolving public sentiment and media responses, creates a set of fundamental uncertainties that will shape policy environments and impact organizational operations.

Our Alternative Futures team has identified two pivotal variables to frame our potential futures: federal-state policy alignment (states accepting or resisting federal policies or regulations) and public/media sentiment (supportive of the Trump agenda vs. oppositional). Here’s how they could play out: 

• Unified Enforcement emerges if federal alignment prevails and public/media sentiment is supportive. Companies must align with federal norms while avoiding the appearance of political favoritism, as perceived complicity can carry reputational costs.

• State Resistance occurs when blue states defy federal mandates despite supportive media. Companies face conflicting compliance obligations and jurisdiction-specific reputation risks, including accusations of hypocrisy or opportunism.

• A Divided Front arises if federal alignment succeeds but public/media sentiment turns critical. Stakeholder scrutiny intensifies, and companies may need to strategically distance themselves from the administration.

• Fragmentation and Conflict – oppositional sentiment plus state pushback – produces the most volatile environment, demanding extreme agility, values-driven communication and careful navigation between activist pressure and federal enforcement.

To learn more, reach out to FGS Global’s Alternative Futures team at AlternativeFutures@fgsglobal.com.

A June 2025 Gallup poll found a shift in American views on immigration, even as federal enforcement efforts intensify. Gallup has been tracking the US attitudes toward immigration since 1965, and this year’s poll indicates support for immigrants and pathways to citizenship has reached historic highs, reflecting significant movement across party lines. Our Alternative Futures team highlights the key findings:

• 79% of Americans now say immigration benefits the country (up from 64% in 2024).

• Only 30% want immigration reduced (down from 55%).

• 78% favor pathways to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

• Among Republicans, those wanting decreased immigration fell dramatically from 88% to 48%; 64% now view immigration positively (up from 39%).

• Support for stricter border enforcement is declining: backing for more Border Patrol agents dropped from 76% to 59%, and border wall support fell from 54% to 45%.

• Just 35% of Americans approve of President Trump’s handling of immigration; only 21% of Hispanic adults approve.

The Trump administration points to other polls which show support for the president on immigration. A recent Morning Consult poll found 51% approve of the president’s handling of immigration while 43% disapprove. The administration is moving forward with its expanded immigration enforcement, including:

• ICE funding has tripled, with $45 billion dedicated to expanding detention capacity and $29.9 billion for enforcement operations.

• Legislation enables hiring 10,000 additional ICE officers and constructing hundreds of miles of new border barriers.

• The administration aims to remove up to 1 million undocumented immigrants annually, amid warnings from critics about overcrowding, due process and economic disruption.