Will Oberge-fall?

Nearly ten years after legalizing same-sex marriage nationwide, the Supreme Court has been asked to re-visit the landmark Obergefell v. Hodges decision. On July 24, 2025, Kim Davis, the former Kentucky clerk who made headlines in 2015 for refusing to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples, filed a petition to overturn a damages judgment against her – and the Obergefell ruling itself. The move lands before a Court with a larger conservative majority than the one that decided Obergefell in a narrow 5–4 vote. 

Still, FGS Global’s expert court watchers believe it’s unlikely the landmark decision is about to be overturned. Here’s why:

• Long history of legal defeats: Since her brief jailing for contempt of court in 2015, Davis has consistently lost in court, most recently at the conservative-leaning Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals, which covers Kentucky and neighboring states.

• Little appetite among jurors: Justice Neil Gorsuch cited Obergefell as a key foundation in his 2020 majority opinion in Bostock v. Clayton County. Justices John Roberts (who joined Gorsuch’s majority opinion in Bostock), Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett are also considered unlikely to reopen the politically explosive issue.

• Thomas and Alito are in the minority: While both have signaled interest in overturning Obergefell, they would need at least two more votes to hear the case.

• Different priorities: The court’s conservative majority is more likely to focus its attention next term on litigating the scope of presidential executive authority and winnowing the power of the administrative state.

A decision on whether the Court will hear Davis’s appeal is expected this fall.

The recent 25th EU-China Summit in Beijing marked a tentative return to high-level dialogue amid intensifying geopolitical tensions and trade disputes. While expectations were low, both sides sought to stabilize a crucial yet increasingly fraught relationship, focusing on restoring communication over delivering breakthroughs. 

FGS Global’s China Bridge team recently published an analysis of the summit. Here are their key takeaways:

• Divergent priorities: The EU pushed for movement on market access, overcapacity and Russia, while China emphasized long-term strategy and shielding EU ties from U.S. dynamics.

• Economic dialogue: An upgraded export control mechanism was launched to address disruptions in European imports of critical raw materials, signaling a pragmatic approach to economic continuity.

• Climate commitments: A joint statement reaffirmed support for multilateral climate action ahead of COP30, offering momentum for clean tech and energy transition sectors, though measures remain non-binding.

• Critical minerals dialogue: Leaders launched a mechanism to ease delays EU importers face when sourcing key raw materials, spotlighting supply chain vulnerabilities in the energy transition and signaling a joint desire for stability in the green economy.

• Unresolved market tensions: No movement was made on disputes over electric vehicles, tariffs or broader market access.

• Sectoral cooperation: New working groups and initiatives in areas like emissions trading and financial regulation may create entry points for business engagement.

• Business voices: Both sides’ business leaders urged progress on market access, with the EU reiterating its openness to Chinese investment but warning that patience is waning.

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After a decade of dominance in U.S. equities, global investors are diversifying – and Asia-Pacific markets are emerging as the preferred destination, with inflows surpassing even those into Europe. Japanese and Australian shares hit fresh all-time highs this week, powering a rally that has lifted indices across the region. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index is up 15% year-to-date, well ahead of the S&P 500’s sub-10% gain. Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 has climbed a remarkable 20% over the past year.

This momentum comes despite persistent warnings from economists about volatility and risk. The latest catalyst was U.S. President Donald Trump’s extension of the U.S.-China trade truce by another 90 days, easing immediate fears of escalation and allowing investors to look past April’s tariff shock. 

In practice, the impact of U.S. tariffs has been muted so far, and underlying economic activity remains robust. Japanese businesses continue to deliver strong earnings, Australian business confidence has hit a three-year high and Singapore has upgraded its 2025 GDP growth forecast. 

Loose monetary conditions across the region aiming to stimulate economies are providing additional support for asset prices, helping to sustain momentum even as global risks linger. Combined with the global reallocation of capital away from an overextended U.S. market, these forces suggest APAC equities may continue to outperform—even if the risks investors are currently ignoring eventually come back into focus.

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