Early Bird Gets The Vote

The election is officially underway. Early voting has begun in Pennsylvania, with other key swing states opening through next month:

• Pennsylvania – September 16

• Georgia – October 15

• North Carolina – October 17

• Nevada – October 19

• Arizona – October 19

• Wisconsin – October 22

• Michigan – October 26

In 2020, amid the COVID pandemic, early voting contributed to the highest voter turnout in over 100 years, due to expanded options like in-person early voting, mail-in and absentee voting. With these increased options, nearly 70% of votes were cast before Election Day, compared to 40% in 2016. Seniors (78%), voters with college or graduate degrees (74%) and women (71%) were most likely to vote prior to Election Day.

Pew’s post-election poll showed mail-in and absentee voters supported Biden (65%/33%), while Election Day voters gave Trump the same margin (65%/33%). Trump won early in-person voters by 5%.

While early voting may not reach 2020 levels, it is expected to play a significant role this year — and is likely to be a source of controversy. Since the 2020 election, many states controlled by Republicans have tightened restrictions on early voting, while Democratic states have expanded access.

The options available to voters for how to cast their ballots will have a significant impact on the outcome of the 2024 election. Key battleground states are experiencing varied changes to the rules around ballot access and voting restrictions:

• Georgia – Republicans have introduced new restrictions, including limits on mail-in ballots, fewer drop boxes, and easier challenges to cast ballots.

• North Carolina – With a veto-proof majority in the state legislature, Republicans have implemented stricter voting requirements, including the nation’s strictest voter ID law, new absentee deadlines, increased authority for partisan poll observers, and easier ballot challenges.

• Wisconsin – The state Supreme Court reversed a ban on drop boxes, allowing their use but not mandating them.

In contrast, some states have expanded voting access:

• Michigan – A 2022 ballot initiative expanded access to early in-person voting and mail-in voting. There has also been an increase in drop boxes for absentee ballots.

• Nevada – The state permanently expanded mail voting access with mail ballots now sent to all voters. There is at least one dropbox per county, and third parties are allowed to collect ballots from voters.

Two key swing states will maintain largely the same voting procedures as 2020: 

• Arizona – Despite many election-related conspiracy theories, there have been no meaningful changes in voting procedures.

• Pennsylvania – While there are new provisions for mail-in ballots, the state has also made voting easier with automatic voter registration when renewing driver’s licenses.

Vote certification, once a routine process, has become a contentious issue in U.S. elections. Some local and state election officials have adopted new rules that make it easier to challenge results and harder to resolve disputes.

An investigation by Rolling Stone identified at least 70 Trump supporters currently working as county election officials in key swing states who have “questioned the validity of elections or delayed or refused to certify results.” Refusal to certify could delay a state from reporting their results, disrupting the election and undermining confidence in the outcome.

In Georgia, the State Election Board has introduced two new rules that could complicate and delay vote certification:

• The “reasonable inquiry rule” requires counties to certify elections only after ensuring that all tabulation and canvassing are complete and accurate.

• The “examination rule” permits county board members to review all election documentation before certifying results.

Historically, certification has been mandatory and separate from resolving ballot issues, which were handled by other authorities. The Democratic National Committee and the Georgia Democratic Party have sued to prevent these new rules, arguing they could lead to significant disruptions and undermine confidence in election outcomes.

With over 3,000 counties across the country needing to certify results before electors meet on December 17, the potential for delays and disputes remains high.