Cracks In The Barrel

Cracker Barrel is the latest business caught in the crosshairs of the culture wars, cutting across our polarized society. What does the data tell us?

The ill-fated logo unveil was by far the biggest attention the company received in the past five years, triggering a backlash among its conservative-leaning consumer base (Trump carried 74% of congressional districts with a Cracker Barrel). The business impact has been significant: foot traffic is down 8% and is expected to remain negative despite increased marketing spend. The share price crashed by 27% since the announcement, an activist investor is pushing for a CEO replacement.

Takeaway? Polarization shapes business outcomes. Four in five consumers believe brands have a political affiliation, and six in ten say they buy from – or boycott – brands based on whether they align with their identity. Among the 300 largest consumer brands, one in eight has a strongly partisan customer base, and more than one-third are at least moderately partisan.

“I never thought I would see the day when our products were so heavily politicized, but they are,” says Ford CEO Jim Farley. While polarization can create antagonism, it can also offer a powerful way to differentiate a brand and enhance its value proposition—especially for smaller brands.

For more data on business and polarization, see our colleagues’ Substack.

Congress is racing toward the September 30 deadline to fund the government, with no new solutions in sight. Sharp partisan divides, narrow majorities and internal party fractures are making compromise elusive, and a government shutdown is a real possibility. Here’s what you need to know: 

• Partisan divides run deep. The Trump administration has proposed a four-month stopgap measure through January, while House Republicans favor a shorter stopgap that funds the government at current levels through November 21. Democrats oppose temporary measures that fail to restore Medicaid cuts or extend Affordable Care Act subsidies.

• Republicans are managing slim majorities and divergent opinions. Fiscal conservatives demand steep cuts, while moderates fear political fallout from a shutdown. The Senate rejected the House-passed measure last week, but Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune is planning another vote. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson seeks bipartisan cooperation but faces pressure from MAGA-aligned conservatives for deeper cuts and policy riders.

• Democrats have limited leverage. Progressives reject cuts, while moderates caution against political risks. Democratic leaders of both chambers have called for inclusion in negotiations, otherwise claiming Republicans will shoulder blame for a shutdown. Democratic leadership is prioritizing resistance to maneuvers like the $4.9 billion “pocket rescission” of foreign aid. Seven Democrats must back the measure to pass. Meanwhile, Trump canceled a meeting planned with Democratic leaders for Thursday, raising the stakes.

• Major sticking points make compromise challenging. Disputes center on cuts to health, labor and oversight agencies, the future of health care subsidies, energy and climate funding and immigration enforcement priorities.

To learn more, reach out to FGS Global’s Alternative Futures team at AlternativeFutures@fgsglobal.com.

TikTok’s fate in the U.S. may finally be heading toward resolution. Washington and Beijing have reached a framework agreement that would allow the app to continue its U.S. operations, albeit under a new structure. The agreement will create a U.S.-based entity to run the app with a board dominated by American directors, and a consortium led by Oracle, Silver Lake and Andreessen Horowitz will own 80% of the company. Oracle will oversee the security of users’ data.

Beijing, for its part, has signaled it will license TikTok’s algorithm—which the U.S. entity would retrain—and other intellectual property, a notable concession. Presidents Trump and Xi are slated to speak Friday to finalize terms, with the deadline for the spin-off now extended to December 16.

But the deal still leaves unresolved questions: Who will truly control U.S. user data? Is Beijing really willing to cede its prized algorithms? And could this become Washington’s playbook for handling other Chinese tech firms?

For China, agreeing to the mooted terms may be a pragmatic gesture to smooth broader trade talks. But this will also set a far-reaching precedent. While TikTok’s popularity gives it exceptional leverage, it encapsulates the challenges faced by every big Chinese tech company seeking to expand globally.

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