While millions of Americans head to the polls today, head to the polls today, the outcome of the 2024 election is likely to hang in the balance for days, if not weeks. In a political landscape still reeling from the 2020 election’s drawn-out conclusion, this year’s results could once again challenge our patience—and our expectations.
So when can we expect to learn who won? Here is what we know:
It’s unlikely we will know who won the presidency tonight. It is also possible we won’t know which party will control the House of Representatives. It is more likely we will know which party controls the Senate.
Some exit poll data and anecdotal information about turnout will likely become available as early as this afternoon, but this information is often unreliable. No state can begin reporting results until after their polls close.
News outlets will make an “unofficial” call in each state when, based on their analysis of voter registration, turnout and other factors, there are not enough uncounted votes remaining for the trailing candidate to overtake the leading candidate. Remember – results declared by a news agency are not official results.
The vote margin is the biggest factor news outlets consider before making a call in a race. After most of the vote has been reported and counted, if the margin in a state is greater than 0.5%, we are likely to have a winner declared. If margins are less than 0.5%, we’ll see prolonged uncertainty.
For context, in 2020, Joe Biden was unofficially declared the winner on November 7, four days after Election Day (after Nevada and Pennsylvania were called, putting him over 270 electoral votes). But Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia were still outstanding, and the latter was the final to be called on Nov. 19 after a recount.
States will officially declare the winner in a race once they have completed a state canvass in which every ballot is counted and verified (and recounted and reverified if necessary). This process can take days or even weeks – and must be completed before December 11.
