Trump Card Spotlight: Financial Services

President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House carries major implications for the financial services sector. While regulatory action in some areas will surely diminish, other policy areas will be less predictable. Here’s an early rundown of likely priorities for the incoming administration:

• The Fed: While Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has already reaffirmed the Federal Reserve’s independence from the White House – a move that’s revived long-held tensions with Trump – expect the administration to focus on enhancing transparency within the Fed system, easing bank regulations and reducing scrutiny on bank mergers.

• Digital Assets: Trump has consistently signaled his support for the industry and is considering multiple crypto-friendly names for the chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Expect the new administration to be a shot in the arm for a sector that faced intense scrutiny under Biden, and for the SEC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission or Congress to prioritize regulatory clarity for digital assets.

• Capital Markets: Anticipate more business-friendly leadership at agencies like the SEC, CFTC and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. This will likely result in fewer reviews of mergers and acquisitions, more deal approvals and relaxed rules on IPOs and capital formation.

• Consumer Financial Protection Bureau: Expect Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra to quickly be replaced with a more business-friendly successor. Biden-era rules on credit card late fees, junk fees and small business lending will likely be rolled back.

• Housing Finance: Trump’s administration may scale back Biden-era fair housing policies, reduce housing benefits and impose stricter work requirements for public housing. Additionally, privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac remains a GOP priority.

A top headline since the election has focused on the Latino vote’s rightward shift, according to available exit polling. While Hispanics, in particular Latino men, didn’t turn out for Harris in the same numbers they did for Biden in 2020, the American Voter Poll of Latinos and other communities of color suggests this shift might not have been as strong as exit polls indicate.

Nevertheless, this rightward trend forces the question of where Democrats went wrong with Latinos. Messaging was key. Several Democratic policy priorities tested in the AVP such as abortion, climate/clean energy, Medicare negotiations for lower drug prices and a 15% tax on large corporations all have wide support— between 70% and 94%. Comparing this high policy support to the 62% of the Latino vote Harris won, it’s clear Democratic policies outran Democratic candidates up and down the ballot. That suggests a gap in how these policies are messaged and prioritized.

Also, despite two years’ worth of evidence showing the softening of support among Latino men, the Harris-Walz campaign didn’t actively conduct outreach to this segment until mid-October.

While it’s continually proven that Hispanics are not a monolith, general population polls and off-the-cuff cable pundit analysis reduce their voting behavior and patterns to simplistic soundbites. When working with the Latino communities throughout the country, understanding their nuances and differences is critical in communicating effectively with this important and growing segment of the U.S. population.

FGS-Prospero can help you design tailor-made strategies to help clients reach their goals in communicating to Latino communities. Please feel free to reach out at FGS-Prospero@fgsglobal.com. 

Today’s Republican party has changed since Trump first ran for president in 2016. While it is now Trump’s party, there are still a range of approaches to policy which will both compete and co-exist in his second administration.

Our Alternative Futures team has outlined the range of possibilities for what a second Trump administration could look like:

• “Pro-Business Conservatism,”or a policy focus on Agenda 47: This approach focuses on pro-business priorities, including lowering corporate taxes, reducing the regulatory burden, cutting taxes for individuals and increasing production of fossil fuels.

• “Populist Conservatism,” or an ultra MAGA administration with a policy focus on Agenda 47: With this approach, the administration would pursue a populist agenda that has some anti-corporate undertones. That could include policies like 10%-20% tariffs on all imported goods, a more vocal and interventionist White House on business and regulatory issues, aggressive policies to secure the border and scrutiny of “Big Tech.”

• “MAGA With Guardrails,” or a conservative administration with a policy focus on Project 2025: This approach would advance MAGA priorities while balancing legal and political concerns — much like the first Trump administration. Areas of focus could include immigration, policies addressing diversity, equity and inclusion and an “America First” foreign policy.

• “MAGA Magnified,” or an ultra MAGA administration with a policy focus on Project 2025: The administration would fully embrace the MAGA agenda, restore traditional values, expand power for the executive branch, implement large-scale deportations of undocumented workers, reduce the size of the permanent civil service and impose stricter regulations on abortion access and reproduction rights services.

To learn more about how the possibilities could impact your organization, reach out to FGS Global’s Alternative Futures team at AlternativeFutures@fgsglobal.com.