Eat or Be Eaten

President-elect Trump’s focus on tariffs and immigration as well as his selection of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health & Human Services, Brooke Rollins to lead the Department of Agriculture and Dr. Marty Makary to lead the U.S. Food and Drug Administration suggest the new administration will bring substantial shifts to the food and agriculture industry. Here’s what we’re following: 

• Make America Healthy Again (MAHA): Trump’s embrace of Kennedy and the MAHA platform is raising issues such as banning sugary drinks and processed foods from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, reforming farm subsidies and revamping pesticide regulations.

  • Conventional agriculture interests – a core Trump constituency – have joined food makers expressing concern that MAHA policies could undermine the current food system, dramatically raise prices and run contrary to modern agriculture practices.

• Economic growth and tariffs: Widespread tariffs are at the crux of Trump’s economic plan but the industry is wary of potential retaliatory tariffs, which have historically targeted U.S. food and agriculture.

• Immigration & labor: Nearly 1.7 million undocumented immigrants work in the food supply chain and Trump’s plans for a mass deportation could have serious economic and operational impacts across the sector.

• Ag tech and innovation: Companies could benefit from Elon Musk’s influence and the Trump campaign promises to remove regulatory barriers and reduce taxes.

• Farm bill: Without passing a farm bill by the end of the year, policymakers are now talking about a possible one year extension. When negotiators come back to the table, the incoming Republican majority is expected to re-examine issues such as funding for federal nutrition programs as well as and look for ways to increase reference prices for farmers.

The 2024 UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) concluded over the weekend in Baku, Azerbaijan after marathon negotiations between governments yielded an agreement on climate finance and set the stage for next year’s highly anticipated COP30 in Brazil. 

FGS Global was on the ground providing trusted counsel and support for leading companies, coalitions and philanthropic organizations. Here are five things we learned:  

1. The diplomatic game continues to change given the outcome of the U.S. election. The onus will be on ambitious coalitions of companies and countries to move things forward. 

2. The battle for finance isn't over and the role of carbon markets is a big question mark. The agreements in Baku allow for the basic infrastructure to be created, but big questions around integrity standards remain. 

3. Nature is in the spotlight. Leading businesses, including food and agriculture, have been engaging with Brazil for many months now, and this will only pick up in intensity.

4. Expectations for Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are muted and need to be grounded in pragmatism, with clear policy signals that allow the private sector to make investment decisions. 

5. For business, the COP process needs to be reframed. COP30 in Brazil is a strategic opportunity for corporations and organizations to engage directly with stakeholders and take on sustainability at its source, right in the heart of one of the world's most critical carbon sinks.

FGS Global will be there, helping clients maximize their presence and stand out in a crowded field. Reach out to GlobalClimate@fgsglobal.com to learn how we can help you.

As Americans start setting their tables for Thanksgiving dinner this week, the cranberry – one of the season’s signature flavors – remains a key player in both U.S. kitchens and global trade. Here are some facts from colleagues in our Food & Agriculture practice:

• The U.S. produces about two-thirds of the world’s cranberries, according to data from 2018-2022. 

• In 2023, cranberry exports totaled $343.1 million, a slight 2% dip from 2022 and $85.9 million below the 2018 peak.

• Processed cranberry products like sauce and juice make up about 95% of U.S. cranberry exports, largely destined for Canada, Mexico, China and the Netherlands. 

• Prepared or preserved cranberries accounted for $267.6 million (78%) of export value, while cranberry juice exports were valued at $57.1 million. 

• The U.S. also imports cranberries, mostly from Canada, with imports totaling $194.5 million in 2023, up from the inflation-adjusted low of $111.7 million in 2019. 

• Processed cranberries are imported year-round, while fresh cranberry trade spikes in autumn ahead of the holiday season.

This editorial team firmly advocates for using fresh cranberries over canned.