Canadian businesses are facing a world in flux – as domestic and global policies, international relations and capital markets undergo unpredictable shifts, Boards and management teams must stay agile to mitigate risk and seize opportunity successfully.
To help leaders make sense of these challenges, FGS Longview Partners Hugh McFadyen, Phil Harwood and Heather Tory, along with FGS Global Senior Advisor Michael Considine, led a recent webinar with the Institute of Corporate Directors. Together, they examined the key geopolitical forces at play, how the Canadian government is responding, and practical strategies Canadian boards can adopt to navigate this landscape.
Setting the stage: geopolitical influences
The session began with an overview of key geopolitical factors currently impacting the global landscape. Among these are US-China relations, which play a pivotal role in shaping international markets and industries; the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which continues to have ramifications for governments worldwide; regional instability in the Middle East; and the rapidly evolving policies of the US administration, whose efforts to quickly enact substantial changes are creating constant disruptions for Canadian companies.
Each of these forces requires organizations to consistently recalibrate and reassess their strategies — even as the impact of these disruptions is uncertain. While many view them as the start of a new world order, there is also a chance they are temporary; the US administration has tended to prioritize short term gains via transactional decision making, so while their policies can create larger, lasting consequences, they also may be quickly reversed in service of other goals.
Still, many of these decisions do have direct implications for Canada, and not always positive ones. In fact, President Trump’s actions are the latest in a fairly long line of decisions going back through the Biden and Obama administrations that have required Canada to pivot their agenda. For instance, President Obama’s cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline influenced Canada’s drive to diversify its energy export infrastructure, while, even outside the US, China’s “Made in China 2025” initiative prompted a reassessment of Canada’s own priorities and competitive sectors.
The Canadian response
In response, Canada, like many other countries has begun to view economic security as synonymous with national security. Through efforts like Bill C-5, which seeks to expedite infrastructure projects, Canada is taking steps to ensure it has more resources and diversified trade, which can create certainty and protection in this dynamic landscape. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s more corporate approach to decision-making is also shaping this response.
Additionally, despite policy headwinds, it seems both sides of the US-Canada relationship acknowledge its historic importance and the need to continue to collaborate on certain issues. Rather than reacting to rhetoric, Canada is focusing on the reality of the relationship, which is positive overall.
Practical strategies for Boards and leaders
Companies should take a similarly pragmatic approach. Rather than overreacting to changes in global politics, or even knock-on effects like dips in share price, Boards should assess whether these are fundamental shifts or just passing moments. This will help them focus on what is within their control and the practical steps they can take to respond. Scenario planning is hugely helpful in this regard. Anticipating multiple possible futures helps Boards to avoid impulsive reactions or worse, decision paralysis, to better respond when major shifts do occur.
Additionally, scenario planning gives Boards greater confidence in their defensive strategies, which will allow more room to spring on opportunities when they arise. Boards who are able to proactively identify new opportunities amid disruption will fare better in the current moment than those overemphasizing risk management.
Finally, working closely with government and partners is key to reducing risk and creating shared value. And the same is true for other stakeholders – when Canadian organizations launch projects under Bill C-5, engaging the public early can help anticipate concerns, reduce opposition and build lasting support. This can avoid costly setbacks, accelerate project timelines, and ensure mutually beneficial outcomes.
While the global landscape may be unpredictable, organizations can chart a more confident path forward by focusing on what they can control: robust scenario planning, proactive stakeholder engagement and strong partnerships with government. By leaning into these practical strategies, Canadian companies will not only withstand the current turbulence but also position themselves to seize new opportunities as they emerge.
