Welcome to FGS Global's 2024 U.S. Election Dashboard
Current Base Case:
Given an evenly divided America, we expect a very close presidential race and a tight battle for control of Congress resulting in narrow margins in both the House and the Senate.
President:
Toss Up
House:
Toss Up
Senate:
Leans Republican
President
Voters in seven swing states will determine the next president
It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Based on current polling, state demographics, and historical performance, the presidential race will be decided in seven swing states.
Since she replaced President Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket, Vice President Harris has closed the gap with former President Trump in all seven swing states and the candidates are polling within the margin of error in each state.
Trump’s path to the presidency runs through the must-win states of Georgia and Pennsylvania. Without them, it would be difficult (but not impossible) for him to get the 270+ required electoral votes.
Vice President Harris has a path through the Rust Belt (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania) and a path through the Sun Belt (Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia).
Either way, the election is likely to come down to narrow and hard-fought victories in a handful of states.
August 30, 20204 | Swing State Dynamics
U.S. House of Representatives
Control for the House in 2025 is largely a toss-up. Republicans in the House currently have one of the smallest majorities in U.S. history, and both Republicans and Democrats have the opportunity to flip vulnerable freshman-held seats this year.
U.S. Senate
Most analysts predict that the Senate will flip from Democratic control to give Republicans a slim majority in 2025. Democratic incumbents are in very competitive races in Montana, Ohio, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Though a long shot, the best chances for Democrats to pick up a seat are in Texas, Florida, and Nebraska.
Alternative Futures
Preparation, Not Prediction.
The 2024 election has proven to be one of the most unpredictable ever. At FGS Global, we are encouraging our clients to prepare for a range possible outcomes rather than try to predict the future.
Using the Alternative Futures Analysis Method (AFAM), we have developed a framework for thinking about the possible outcomes of the 2024 election. This framework can be applied to the business and regulatory environment generally, to an industry or economic sector, or to a specific issue or company.
The analytic process facilitates strategic decision-making for your business or organization.
FGS Election Blog
Sources
