I Want You To Want Me

Indonesia – the world’s third-largest democracy – is the next up in the global “Year of Elections,” with voters headed to the polls on February 14. (Your managing editor, having just returned from vacation to Southeast Asia, can personally speak to the vast amount of campaign posters papering the streets of Jakarta in the leadup to the country’s upcoming election). 

On the ballot are three presidential candidates vying to replace extremely popular incumbent Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo, who has reached his two-term limit. Riding highest in the polls is current Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto and his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, who happens to be Jokowi’s eldest son. 

The ticket has created concerns about dynasty-building and favoritism, as the country’s Constitutional Court had to make an exception to its vice presidential age limits for the 36-year old Raka to join the ballot. Furthermore, Subianto has been dogged by accusations he was involved in human rights abuses in Papua and East Timor in the 1990s, as well as kidnapping and torture of pro-democracy activists, though he denies the allegations and was never charged. 

What else is at stake for this emerging regional powerhouse?

All candidates seem to agree modernizing and strengthening the country's industrial base, export competitiveness and infrastructure are key goals. In other words, policies straight from the ‘Jokowinomics’ playbook. According to analysts, where they differ is how to get there, including the role of government vs. private sector initiatives and protectionism vs. liberalization.  

One particularly divisive issue is the proposed $30 billion relocation of the capital from a sinking Jakarta to Nusantara in Borneo.

With each candidate proposing a slightly different version of Indonesia's economic future, it’s no surprise regional investors are keeping a watchful eye on the result.

President Biden and Taylor Swift made strange bedfellows as the most recent victims of  high-profile AI-generated deepfakes, which have reignited calls for AI regulation from Congress, the administration and state policymakers. 

On January 21, a robocall impersonating Biden encouraging recipients not to vote in the state’s primary went out to New Hampshire voters. 

The audio deepfake, which is being investigated, was creating using technology from AI-startup ElevenLabs, which has since banned the account responsible. The next day, OpenAI banned the developer of a ChatGPT-powered bot designed to mimic presidential candidate Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN), the company’s first action in response to a “misuse” of its AI tools in a political campaign.

And late last week, explicit, fabricated pictures of pop-star Taylor Swift began spreading on social media. The images caused public outrage and raised concern about AI’s harmful implications. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre called the incident “alarming” and called on Congress to pass legislation to protect people from fake sexual images generated by AI. 

Federal and state legislatures are cracking down. Senator Mike Rounds (R-SD), a key member of Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) AI Working Group, said tackling the use of AI in campaign ads and communications is a top priority. And legislation currently being considered in Georgia is attempting to make deepfakes impersonating a candidate a felony. 

And Congressman Joe Morelle (D-NY) introduced bipartisan legislation in January that would make nonconsensual sharing of digitally-altered explicit images a federal crime, with jail time and fines.

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Current polling suggests Trump has the Republican nomination all but sewn up—but both Biden and Trump are facing vulnerabilities in their coalition. 

FGS’ Insights Team lays these out in their most recent election update:

In Biden’s case, young voters and voters of color—who were critical to his 2020 victory—are not as supportive as they were four years ago. Young voters are threatening to sit out the election, with the share of young Americans planning to vote in 2024 down 8%. They’re disappointed by Biden’s response to the situation in Gaza, his handling of climate change and his inability to cancel student loan debt or codify Roe v. Wade. 

Meanwhile, early primaries show weaknesses among Republicans who are moderate, college educated voters or who live in the suburbs. The Trump campaign is trying to capture critical voting blocs like Latino and black voters, who are turned off by Biden. And recent polling has shown Trump’s share of the women vote is down 5% from December 2023, a key weakness for him. 

So what does the GOP need to win?

Managing Director Gina Foote: “Republicans can win by promoting real solutions where they have an undeniable advantage in the eyes of voters – crime, immigration, and the economy.”

Partner Trent Duffy: “Abortion and Trump on ballot will help Democrats, but Biden fatigue is real. The economy seems poised to roll, but will it be in time to be felt by the electorate in November to be a factor? The GOP should learn from DeSantis and see that bashing wokeness and Ivy League presidents is not a substitute for an actual agenda that attracts majority coalitions. They must appeal to working families with a positive agenda that makes a difference in their lives.”