The Unknown Unknowns

If the last two weeks have shown us anything, it’s that the only certainty in this election is uncertainty. Our political experts share advice for clients here:

• Prepare, prepare, prepare. Companies who think through the impact of possible electoral outcomes and possible political, legislative and business environments that may result from the election will be ready for any eventuality. FGS Global’s Alternative Futures product is designed to help businesses do just that.

• Keep your business priorities in mind. Know that elections are cyclical and stick to your knitting, because the political pendulum never stops swinging. At the end of the day your true north should be whatever your business priorities are. There is too much change at the national level to try to adapt every four years or even every two.

• If you want to engage proactively about the election, encourage civic engagement. There’s a great shortage of poll workers in this country. Businesses could consider giving employees time off to be poll workers as one way to increase confidence in a democratic process at a time when it’s very divisive. Even guaranteeing employees time off to vote reinforces your company’s values and investment in a vibrant democracy.

• Offer opportunities for civic education. Understanding of basic civics in the U.S. is shockingly low. Companies might consider offering employees basic, nonpartisan education about our democratic process and how it works as a tool to showcase your company’s values and help improve our overall democratic process. 

To learn more, reach out to FGS Global’s Alternative Futures team at AlternativeFutures@fgsglobal.com. 

FGS leaders with campaign, administration, political journalism and legislative experience came together to share insights about President Biden’s historic decision over the weekend and what it means for the 2024 election. Here’s what they said:

• Democrats are hoping Vice President Kamala Harris can strengthen the party's position in the states that won Biden the 2020 election. After Biden’s disastrous debate performance, it looked like a lot of the states Democrats count on—even some reliably blue states—were easing away from him. Democrats are now hoping Harris can step in and strengthen the coalition of states that have traditionally delivered victories to Democrats, including the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. They also hope she might energize young, female and Black voters in states like Georgia and North Carolina.

• It’s a jump ball right now, and both sides are energized. The Trump campaign seemed prepared for the Democrats’ pivot, coming out swinging when Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris. And the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump earned him sympathy from some voters ahead of an enthusiastic Republican convention. Harris, on the other hand, has a chance to introduce herself to the American electorate. And the $81 million donated to her campaign from 888,000 people in the 24 hours after Biden’s announcement shows voters are eager to meet her.

• Harris’ vice presidential choice could make or break her campaign. North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro are reportedly being vetted as Harris’ vice presidential candidate. Not only does the VP selection represent a candidate’s vision for the country, it’s a political calculus—sometimes one with disastrous results. 

• Harris’ national campaign is likely to look very different from her primary campaign. In a 2020 primary where many progressive voters were focused on police misconduct, her career as a tough prosecutor who failed to address racial disparities in the law was a strike against her campaign from the beginning. That background sets up a strong contrast with Trump today, who is now a convicted felon. 

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President Biden's withdrawal as the presumptive Democratic nominee has raised questions about the legal, procedural and logistical challenges of replacing him on the ballot. To provide clarity on this complex situation, we’ve outlined the process for selecting a new candidate and the particular challenges that lie ahead for current frontrunner Vice President Kamala Harris.

Vice President Harris faces a series of challenges on her path to securing a nomination:

• She still needs to secure a formal nomination at the national convention. This process hinges on garnering support from pledged delegates, who are committed to vote based on primary and caucus results, and superdelegates, whose votes can sway outcomes in subsequent convention rounds. As of today she has earned support from a majority of Democratic delegates.

• She must contend with ballot access laws – notably in Ohio, where legal deadlines present a logistical hurdle. Changes in state law regarding certification requirements for presidential candidates have prompted adjustments in DNC procedures to ensure compliance and avoid legal challenges that could jeopardize her placement on the ballot.

• While Harris may benefit from funds raised under Biden's campaign, accessing these resources hinges on her inclusion as either the presidential or VP nominee on the revised ticket.

• The selection of a new vice presidential candidate presents logistical concerns around strategic messaging and unity within the party, particularly as the DNC considers virtual roll-call votes to mitigate challenges arising from the Ohio ballot access issue.

Despite these challenges, Harris has some factors working in her favor. She’s already locked in at least 1991 of the possible 3979 pledged delegates who will be voting in the first round at the convention, in addition to near-unanimous support from congressional Democrats. Her campaign has also been hitting historic funding goals, successfully raising over $100 million since she announced her intention to run.