Trump Card

Based on media reports, the Trump team has done more planning and is far more prepared to hit the ground running should the former president be re-elected.

In the latest edition of our Alternative Futures election analysis, we have examined four primary inputs to describe the range of possible Trump Administration policy priorities and actions.

Those inputs include former President Trump’s own words and actions, the official 2024 Republican party platform, Agenda 47 on Trump’s website and Project 2025. While the former president has gone to great lengths to distance himself from the project, his vice presidential candidate Sen. JD Vance, many top former officials and Trump political advisors have contributed to the project.

Here are the possible outcomes:

• Pro-business conservatism: An administration focused on pro-business priorities, including lowering corporate taxes, reducing the regulatory burden, cutting taxes for individuals and increasing production of fossil fuels.

• MAGA with guardrails: An administration that pushes MAGA priorities but is checked on its more aggressive tendencies. Priorities could include immigration, anti-DEI policies and an America First foreign policy.

• Populist conservatism: An administration pursuing a populist agenda that has some anti-corporate undertones, including a 10% tariff on all imported goods, a more vocal and interventionist White House on business and regulatory issues, a Muslim travel ban and reduction in H-1B visas for skilled workers and efforts to break up “Big Tech.”

• MAGA magnified: An administration that seeks to restore traditional values, claim more power for the executive branch, impound funding for programs it doesn’t support, reduce the size of the permanent civil service and further restrict access to abortion.

From insights and analysis to strategy workshops, political intelligence to post- election planning, our integrated team of political, policy and communications experts can help you navigate the uncertainty ahead. Contact us at alternativefutures@fgsglobal.com to learn more.

If the presidential race is a nailbiter, congressional control is no more certain. Our Alternative Futures team dug deep into House and Senate race polling to get the lay of the land.

In the Senate, the focus is on the Ohio, Michigan, Montana and Nevada Senate races.

Several factors give GOP the advantage in the Senate:

• Democrats are defending incumbents in 2 states Trump won handily in 2020 (OH and MT)

• Six of the eight retirements are Democrats

•  Republicans are likely to flip the open seat in West Virginia

Here’s the current tally:

• Solid Democrat (14 seats)

• Likely/Lean Democrat (4 seats)

• Toss up held by Democrat/Independent (4 seats)

• Toss up held by Republican (0 seats)

• Likely/Lean Republican (2 seats)

• Solid Republican (10 seats)

• No election in 2024 (66 seats)

Republicans in the House have one of the smallest majorities in U.S. history. Control could go either way.

Current House ratings:

• Solid Democrat: 173 (including one-GOP held seat)

• Likely/Lean Democrat: 30 (including two GOP-held seats)

• Toss-up: 11 Democrat, 11 Republican

• Likely/Lean GOP: 193 (including 3 Dem-held seats.)

The GOP is defending more seats where Biden won in 2020 than Democrats are defending seats where Trump won that year.

A few states to watch:

• Democrats are defending 2 toss-up seats in Pennsylvania

• Democrats are defending 2 toss-up seats in Michigan

• Democrats are defending 2 toss-up seats in Ohio

• GOP is defending 4 toss-up seats in California

• GOP is defending 4 toss-up seats in New York

• GOP is defending 4 toss-up seats in Arizona

Former President Trump has signaled he will push the limits of executive authority if re-elected, but presidents of both parties have been guilty of executive overreach.

So, a key question emerges: After the 2024 election what checks and balances will remain and how effective will they be?

Legislative branch:

• Oversight

• Narrow majority

• Senate filibuster

• 2026 Senate election map affecting votes for president’s agenda

Political, media and financial:

• Protest and public opinion

• Media coverage

• Financial markets

Executive branch:

• Career civil servants

• Military

Judicial branch:

• State courts

• Federal courts

• Supreme Court