Rough Seas Ahead?

After Election Day, states are given 35 days to finalize vote tallies, resolve any potential lawsuits from either party contesting the results and select electors. This year’s “safe harbor” deadline falls on December 11 – but the possibility of disputes this year is raising some concern over key states’ compliance with the deadline.  

If each state meets the safe harbor deadline and a set of electors are cleared, the Electoral College is bound to meet no more than 41 days after the date of the election – this year, that date is Tuesday, December 17. Across the country, election results will have to be certified in more than 3,000 counties, and all state results must be final by that date. 

If any disputes remain after the Dec. 11 safe-harbor deadline, including if there are multiple sets of electors submitted from each state claiming safe harbor protection – then it falls to Congress to decide which electors, if any, may cast the state’s ballots for president.

One factor that could introduce complications is the possibility of litigation and emergency motions in response to the rise in mail-in ballots. Nevada, for example, will continue accepting ballots until four days after the election. Additionally, a new Georgia rule allowing county election boards to conduct open-ended inquiries into voting irregularities could cause GA to miss the December 11 deadline.

Another potential issue lies with the Bush v. Gore Supreme Court ruling, which enables states to reclaim the authority to appoint electors, potentially sidelining popular vote outcomes. This is particularly worrisome in states such as Arizona, North Carolina and Wisconsin, where partisan tensions could lead to competing elector slates if election results are contested. 

With all the uncertainty surrounding Election Day, it’s possible we may not have clear election results until sometime after November 5. This makes the days between Election Day and Inauguration Day – known as the interregnum period – potentially pivotal in determining the victor of the 2024 presidential campaign. Here are some critical dates to keep in mind:

• November 5: Election Day

• December 11: Governors must name electors, marking the safe harbor deadline

• December 25: Electoral votes received by the President of the Senate or the Archivist of the United States

• January 3: The 119th Congress is sworn in

• January 6: Congress convenes to certify Electoral College votes

• January 20: Inauguration Day

Additionally, each state has its own county and state-level deadlines for certification of election results. Deadlines for battleground states include: 

• Arizona: November 25 for state certification

• Georgia: November 12 county certification; November 14 recount; November 22 state certification

• Michigan: November 19 county certification; November 25 state certification

• Nevada: November 26 state certification

• North Carolina: December 6 state certification

• Pennsylvania: November 12 county certification; November 14 recount; November 25 final county certification

• Wisconsin: November 19 county certification

The stakes are high as both the Harris and Trump campaigns prepare legal teams to navigate any challenges – spending significantly more resources than previous cycles to monitor and guard against what each campaign deems inappropriate or unlawful behavior at the polls.

Depending on how events unfold during the Interregnum, there's a possibility for political disruption, whether from the ideological left or right. This could be a period of uncertainty and instability – with potential to create concern and conflict among a company’s various stakeholders. Companies will be well-served to prepare for these scenarios and have plans in place to respond quickly if necessary. 

Our Alternative Futures team has outlined the possibilities: 

• MAGA restoration: Trump wins the popular vote and the Electoral College by a significant margin. There are claims of voter suppression, but Democratic Party leaders acknowledge the legitimacy of his victory.

• Protests from the left: Trump loses the popular vote but wins the Electoral College by a narrow margin. Claims of voter suppression in swing states cause the left to question his legitimacy. Riots and protests erupt across the country.

• The system holds: Harris wins the popular vote and the Electoral College. Trump alleges election fraud, files (and loses) numerous lawsuits, tries to pressure local Republican officials to overturn the election. However, key Republican officials recognize the legitimacy of Harris’ win, and she becomes president.

• Upheaval on the right: Harris wins a narrow popular vote and Electoral College victory. Trump claims election fraud and calls on his followers to “take back our country.” Protests and instances of violence increase throughout the interregnum period, targeting government officials around key certification milestones.

Contact alternativefutures@fgsglobal.com to learn more.