Trump Card

In an extraordinary comeback, Donald Trump triumphed in both the popular vote and the Electoral College, becoming the first Republican to do so in 20 years. His success, our experts note, can be attributed to a few key factors:

1. A strong coalition – Trump gathered support in several critical demographics, including working-class, non-college educated Americans, young men and Latinos. Together with the Harris campaign’s unexpected loss of support from younger voters, women and Independents, this shift allowed Trump to earn his sweeping victory.

2. A savvy campaign – Unlike in the 2016 and 2020 elections, Trump’s campaign was disciplined on convincing voters Harris was too liberal andd too closely tied to Biden, to blame for struggles at the border and in the economy. Leveraging powerful paid ads along with alternative media sources like podcasts was particularly powerful in winning over voters who waited until the final weeks or even days before ultimately landing on Trump, according to the exit polls.

3. An American desire for change – Exit polls also indicated abortion was not a top issue that drove voters as it did just two years ago. Instead the top two issues were ability to lead and to bring needed change. Nearly three-in-four voters indicated an unhappiness with the country’s current direction, contributing to Trump’s victory.

Meanwhile, the Senate also secured a Republican majority, though not one that is filibuster-proof. Only the House of Representatives remains in the balance, and what happens there will significantly shape the next four years.

Our Alternative Futures framework initially outlined four potential scenarios that could result from this year’s election. Now, only two remain: MAGA Momentum or Power Struggle.

Should Democrats claim the House, Trump would be denied a glidepath to push policies through Congress, forcing him to rely more on executive orders to carry out his agenda. If Republicans maintain control, Trump will have full support from both chambers to quickly advance his agenda. 

What’s on that agenda? Our experts anticipate the following:

• Tariffs – Trump has promised to increase tariffs on Chinese imports by up to 60%, with a 10% increase to all other imports. Such tariffs could drive inflation and raise consumer prices.

• Taxes – Trump may work to renew the tax cuts that were introduced during his first term. He’s also promised to reduce the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%.

• Regulation – Trump will likely roll back Biden-era regulations, particularly by the EPA and the DOE. His approach to antitrust regulations is less clear, though some Republicans, including Vice President-elect JD Vance, may favor a more aggressive stance.

• Foreign Policy – Trump’s foreign policy may align with his rhetoric, including strong ties with certain world leaders and a desire to end the war in Ukraine. However, his plan to exit NATO may be hindered by U.S. law and congressional support for NATO.

• Supreme Court – With Justices Alito and Thomas both in their 70’s, conservatives may push for their retirement and replacement with younger, like-minded justices.

Though his exact plans may not be confirmed, one thing we can count on is swift action. Trump declared that he’s been given a mandate by the American people, and with this energy behind him, he is emboldened. Couple this with the fact that he has said this will be his final term, and the Trump administration should be expected to hit the ground running come January 20^th.

What, then, does the private sector need to know? That the cliché rings true: Those who fail to plan plan to fail. Organizations should keep a watchful eye on the leaders Trump continues to align himself with, the coming tax reform debate, and how the returning president and his agencies will yield power after recent landmark Supreme Court rulings. 

More importantly, organizations should not try to predict the future, but instead prepare for each of the possible outcomes that might impact their mission and how to protect their interests, values and future.

For more guidance, reach out to FGS Global’s Alternative Futures team at AlternativeFutures@fgsglobal.com.