Icy Conditions Ahead

Heightened U.S. immigration enforcement is reshaping the operational, reputational and legal landscape for organizations nationwide. Expanded federal action, evolving policy and public scrutiny are putting pressure on companies to speak out. 

Following the tragic developments in Minneapolis this past weekend, FGS Global’s immigration working group offers the following guidance to help you navigate this complex, high-stakes environment:

• Stay informed: Track national and local media, policy updates and community sentiment. Identify key influencers, advocacy groups and policymakers shaping the narrative.

• Engage stakeholders: Communicate transparently with employees, especially those directly impacted. Leverage internal networks (ERGs, affinity groups) and collaborate with coalitions to amplify support and share resources.

• Craft strategic messaging: Develop clear, fact-based communications tailored to audiences. Establish rapid-response protocols for enforcement incidents or media inquiries.

• Assess risk: Evaluate workforce stability, supply chain exposure and compliance obligations. Consider reputational impact and align actions with organizational values and public commitments.

• Benchmark & align: Track peer responses and sector standards. Ensure your approach aligns with organizational values, commitments and long-term strategy.

• Leverage external resources: The American Business Immigration Coalition offers guidance on compliance and enforcement preparedness, covering I-9 audits, SSA “No Match” letters and ICE worksite actions. 

For a deeper analysis of the strategic, reputational and workforce implications for your organization, please contact FGS Global’s Immigration team.

Food and agriculture policy in 2026 faces political gridlock, shifting leadership and mounting pressure from economic realities and the MAHA movement. 

• Political will is in short supply. Congress enters 2026 with a narrow window for farm bill reauthorization. House Agriculture Committee Chair Glenn "GT" Thompson (R-PA) is targeting a February committee markup, but with House Freedom Caucus pushback and Democrats still stung by last year’s $186 billion SNAP cuts, passage remains uncertain. Without an early deal, midterm politics could stall the bill permanently.

• MAHA movement pledged big change, but patchwork grows. The MAHA movement and HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. have promised sweeping changes in nutrition and food policy, with both USDA and FDA pushing “real food” guidelines that will inform potential rule changes to school meals and stocking requirements for SNAP. However, higher costs, operational hurdles and state-by-state SNAP restrictions mean fragmented standards are likely to persist.

• Appeasing farmers, but is it enough? The Trump Administration is seeking new ways to shore up support in rural America: rolling out $12 billion in Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) payments, stepping up commodity purchases and disaster payments, and cracking down on ag consolidation and foreign ownership of U.S. farmland. Additional aid is likely to be difficult for Congressional Republicans to address.  

• Uncertainty and realignment ahead. Retirements and redistricting are shaking up both the House and Senate Agriculture Committees ahead of midterm elections. Redistricting battles in more than a dozen states could shift the partisan balance, making the fate of major ag legislation unpredictable.

For more like this, sign up for What We’re Watching in Food & Ag by emailing our team here.

After a year defined by market highs, shifting policies and evolving investor dynamics, North America’s capital markets entered 2026 with momentum—and a healthy dose of uncertainty. Several forces are shaping the outlook:

• Markets rallied, but reduced margin for error. Equities closed 2025 at record highs and bonds delivered solid gains as rates declined. Elevated valuations could leave markets vulnerable to shocks and investors less forgiving of disappointment.

• Policy-driven volatility persists. Tariffs were less disruptive than feared, yet legal challenges and shifting trade tactics are creating new uncertainty, which combined with political pressure on monetary policy, will continue to impact investor sentiment, capital investment decisions and earnings visibility.

• AI investment fuels growth and market concentration. Investment by hyperscale technology firms supported economic growth in 2025, but markets are increasingly reliant on a limited set of AI-linked firms. These companies now account for a record share of the S&P 500, amplifying downside risk if they underperform.

• Affordability pressures shape political risk. High housing costs, elevated rates and strain on low- to middle-income consumers are driving targeted policy actions that could affect financial services, energy and housing.

• Canada offers a contrasting signal. Despite similar labor and affordability challenges, strength in commodities—particularly precious metals and critical minerals—drove outsized market performance in 2025, underscoring how geopolitical uncertainty is reshaping capital flows.

What’s Next: Volatility will ebb and flow, but scrutiny will intensify. Clear, dynamic messaging across geopolitics, tariffs, AI, affordability and capital allocation will be critical as companies navigate regulatory pressures, active retail investors and lower tolerance for missteps.